E m e r g i ng From a Crisis

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1 Global Headquarters: 5 Speen Street Framingham, MA USA P F E m e r g i ng From a Crisis W H I T E P A P E R Sponsored by: Sybase Sean O'Dowd April 2009 A S Y B A S E S T U D Y O N C A P I T A L M A R K E T S However tattered their businesses or dismal the current outlook for capital markets firms, they are moving forward. Survivors are working to respond to market conditions and avoid the ill fate of other industry counterparts. These firms are planning not only what they need to survive now, but also how their businesses need to react to the altering financial landscape that lies ahead. So what changes do these firms anticipate as they emerge from the current crisis? Over the course of the first quarter of 2009, Sybase and Financial Insights fielded an in depth survey (see Figure 1) spanning both buyand sell-side firms. The intent was not to reinforce current, "headlines." Rather, we looked at how firms are planning to position themselves as they emerge from the current market turmoil. The goal of the survey was to identify: 1) Anticipated business model changes (see Figure 2), including: External forces such as the regulations and competition. Internal factors: strategy, capital and revenue sources, client targets, products and services and operational changes. 2) The gaps in approaches favored by line of business (LOB) versus IT managers. 3) IT investment changes these firms expect as they look past the current crisis. The survey results suggest that the IT and LOB executives are closely aligned in their strategic vision, and firms in general recognize the requirement for significant business model changes in the short term to achieve the desired increases in business value. To realize these value increases, firms are being increasingly selective when considering IT investments. April 2009, Financial Insights #

2 F I G U R E 1 R e s p o n d e n t F a c t s Sell-side 32% Size: >US$100b: 14% US$10b - $100b: 42% < US$10b: 45% Firm Type: Broker / Dealer: 71% Investment Bank: 29% Buy-side 68% Size: 11% :>US$100b 15% :US$10b - $100b 74% :< US$10b Firm Type: 43% :Fund Manager 23% :Hedge Fund 34% :Other n = 200 F I G U R E 2 T h e f a c t o r s t h a t i m p a c t a f i r m External Factors (Macro) Internal Factors (Control) Does my strategy need to change? Are there new or changing competitive threats? Key success factors : leveraging sources of advantage POSITIONS OF ADVANTAGE Where and how you compete Will I need to target new customer segments? Results in improved performance Are my current products and offerings sufficient? What technologies do I plan to invest in and at what rate? SOURCES OF ADVANTAGE Assets Skills Knowledge Technology Ability to invest to continue to build and sustain advantage PERFORMANCE OUTCOMES Market share Loyalty Financial resources Do my current capital and revenue sources make sense? What significance has the current crisis had on my firm? Page 2 # 2009 Financial Insights, an IDC Company

3 E S T A B L I S H I N G A B E N C H M A R K The study did address some business objectives based on current market conditions. This was to serve as a brief benchmark of industry thinking. Lower revenues are the largest impact to both buy- and sellside firms. Other top issues included reductions in capital expenditure plans and a weakened ability to execute a firm s overall business and investment strategic objectives. Firms cited poor client communications and investors' lack of trust as also impacting business. Businesses are sensitive to the mistrust the general public has and the reputational risk at hand. Conversely, the evidence suggests that firms have not been as largely impacted by layoffs, increased cost of borrowing or investor withdrawals. The impacts have forced firms to rethink their businesses and both buy- and sell-side firms are moving quickly to make changes within the next four quarters. Sell-side responses suggest a larger majority of these firms are planning changes versus buy-side respondents. Roughly, 80% of sell-side firms are reacting to the current crisis in some way, versus 60% for buy-side firms. The remaining 40% of buyside firms responded that no changes were planned. E X T E R N A L P R E S S U R E S Regulatory and Compliance changes There is constant dialogue surrounding the nature and timing of new regulations. These external forces can and do change how businesses are run and the cost of doing so. The market's fallout has dramatically accelerated regulation discussions as policymakers and the public at large demand change to what they see as an industry with unchecked powers and poor oversight. Firms expect changes across the board including a call for more audits, greater levels of monitoring, leverage restrictions, tax laws, uptake rules, etc. As compared to the buy-side, sell-side responses suggest stronger anticipation of more, and more meaningful, regulatory mandates. For all firms, calls for greater transparency and investor reporting requirements are what will cost them the most. Changing regulations for various security types is also a concern, such as changing what derivatives are permitted and how they can be traded. With FASB rule 157 being such an explosive topic it is surprising that responses seemed less concerned with valuation regulations. This signals that many firms may not be as greatly impacted by securities such as credit default swaps, so changes here are of a lesser concern Financial Insights, an IDC Company # Page 3

4 New and changing competitive threats Not unlike what the industry has seen in the past during turbulent times, failures and consolidations are common and are expected to continue. A contributing factor that may be responsible for some of the industry consolidation is the expected growing compliance burden that impacts smaller firms disproportionately. The consolidation in the industry is itself another factor increasing competition amongst remaining firms. Buy-side firms, in particular hedge funds, expect more competitive threats to their businesses. Hedge fund industry reports show a shrinking overall number of hedge funds and respondents agree this trend will continue. Large- and mid-tier hedge funds especially feel that competition will increase and come from more types of firms. The flip side of this is that fund managers and broker / dealers now view hedge funds as less of a competitive threat. Buy- and sell-side firms both see more competitive pressure coming from exchanges, trusts and wealth management firms. Wealth management firms and independents are seen as real threats as clients call for more investment advice. B U S I N E S S M O D E L C H A N G E S Changing business strategies and future success factors Among all the business model factors considered, changing the firm's strategy was the most selected response. Evidence suggested that buy- and sell-side firms believe that driving tighter business unit integration is the most important strategic change they can make (see Figure 3). Doing so enables a firm to operate more efficiently and effectively. It gives firms the ability to be more nimble and proactive to volatile market conditions. Typically with stronger integration comes more consistent communications and ability to leverage internal knowledge. Not surprising than is how IT executive responses showed a greater level of interest in future investment in collaborative technologies to support these integration and connection plans. Study results showed that large- and mid-tier buy-side firms were particularly strong proponents of having tighter unit integration as part of their business strategy change. These buy-side firms also see themselves exiting some business segments and focusing more on core parts of their business. Sell-side firms also placed tighter business unit integration as its leading choice for change. Following this was exploring merger and acquisition opportunities, which were favored among large- and smalltier investment banks. This would suggest part of the expected consolidation may come from this part of the industry. It could be in Page 4 # 2009 Financial Insights, an IDC Company

5 the form of larger firms buying smaller outfits. However, a more plausible scenario is mid- and small- tier firm mergers. Mid- and small-tier firms have benefitted from the glut of top talent as a result of massive layoffs at large banks. Talent wise, they've positioned themselves well, but through merging, firms may gain more size and scale capabilities to win larger deals. F I G U R E 3 E x p e c t e d s t r a t e g y c h a n g e s Firm Type Buy-side Sell-side Do you anticipate a change to your firms strategy? Changes anticipated to be made What will enable your firm to succeed? Yes Tighter business unit integration Client Service 51% Exiting some business segments Innovation Ability to raise capital IT investment Yes Tighter business unit integration Client Service 65% Exploring M&A opportunities Innovation Ability to raise capital IT investment Branding was another interesting change some firms mentioned. This comes up, undoubtedly, with so many investors having a poor perception of Wall Street. Stronger performance is the hallmark measure to change investor perceptions, but focusing on brand improvement may provide an effective method of helping investors demystify a fund's activity. Beyond planned or expected changes for a firm's strategy are the factors that will enable it to execute and succeed over the long-term. Both buy- and sell-side firms listed the same four factors as the most important for long-term success. Above all, improving client service was deemed the most important success factor. Interestingly, client related questions showed the greatest areas of dispute between IT and LOB executives regarding new client targets should be. This presents a challenge for current managers to not only improve current client activities, but also communicate more clearly whom they intend to target in the future. This is important because IT investments made now must take into consideration needs the firm expects it will have in the future. It then 2009 Financial Insights, an IDC Company # Page 5

6 stands to reason that one of the areas IT executives called for greater resources was client related technologies. Beyond client service, firms suggested that innovation, the ability to raise capital and IT investment continue to be very important factors for long term success (see Figure 4). Raising capital is a necessity and IT investment is part of enabling firms to be more cost effective and remain competitively relevant. The most elusive success factor is innovation. It typically is mentioned as being vital, yet it often receives drastic cutbacks during down economic times. It is may be difficult to properly define and execute, but firms should keep funding for innovation. It is important for firms to keep a open perspective on where and how they can innovate,. The key during tough times is to not scrap all innovation projects, but explore cost-effective ideas that can be pursued quickly that may very well yield great dividends. F I G U R E 4 H o w i m p o r t a n t a r e t h e f o l l o w i n g t o y o u r f i r m ' s l o n g - t e r m a b i l i t y t o s u c c e e d? Expand into new products and services, 6% IT investment, 8% Innovation, 13% Client Service, 35% Access to global markets, 13% Ability to raise capital, 24% Page 6 # 2009 Financial Insights, an IDC Company

7 Sources of Capital and Revenue While the level of revenue is important, the evidence suggests that most firms are not particularly concerned about sources of future capital and revenue. For those that were (~25% of responses), it was predominately mid- and small tier firms that suggested the need for change. The high net worth (HNW) segment is seen as the most important and where many smaller firms will focus for both revenue and capital. Buy-side firms also see capital funding coming from commercial banks and endowment funds. Sell-side firms expect an increasing need for commercial bank capital and view equity offerings as being an important source of both capital and revenue. Mid- and small- tier firms that expect capital source changes also expect changing revenue sources. For buy-side firms, investment services and wealth management will be an increasing part of their focus. Sell-side firms, specifically broker / dealers, view M&A advice and research as becoming a more important part of future revenue sources. Customer Targets Almost half of the firms responding felt they will need to consider new client segments as a result of the crisis. The existing client base is typically the focus for firms and for many it will remain so. However, there is increased interest for firms to look beyond their current client base. These targets are not new for the industry, but would be considered new for some buy- and sell-side firms. Overall, the private sector continues to be the preferred area of interest. That said, for firms intending to target the public sector, local governments and municipalities were mentioned the most as targets. When looking at private sector clients, targeting the HNW segment was expected to increase the most for both buy- and sell-side respondents. Considering most respondents are looking toward HNW individuals as a source of capital, the responses here are not surprising. Other respondents targets expected for increased focus were mass affluent individuals, pension funds, foundations and endowments, and cooperative pension accounts i.e. master trust accounts. Despite the enormous losses many U.S investors have taken, capital market firms still rank the U.S as the highest region for increased targeting efforts. Just behind the U.S was Asia Pacific (APAC). Sellside firms in particular, showed a greater level of intent to increase focus for APAC targets. Studies indicate that household wealth is growing faster in APAC than the U.S, so firms appear committed to continue or introducing efforts accordingly Financial Insights, an IDC Company # Page 7

8 Product and Service Changes In reaction to the credit crisis and market fallout roughly a third of firms are also planning meaningful changes to the types of products they offer. Evidence suggested that fund managers and broker /dealers appeared more likely to make changes than hedge funds or investment banks. More firms (~40%) felt that their investment strategies would also need to change as a result of the crisis (see Figure 5). F I G U R E 5 E x p e c t e d I n v e s t m e n t S t r a t e g y C h a n g e s Firm Type Buy-side Sell-side Anticipate changes in investment strategy? Different investment strategies considering Yes Domestic equity - small/mid/large cap 37% Fixed Income Absolute return investing Emerging markets International investments Yes Domestic equity - small/mid/large cap 45% Fixed Income Absolute return investing Emerging markets International investments Of firms that said they expect product changes, the ones seeing the most increase were for equity securities and foreign exchange. Not surprisingly, the products that would be scaled back the most were equity and fixed income derivates. The exception here was hedge funds that see themselves increasing commodity and equity derivative security products. While hedge funds overall appeared less likely to make changes, the ones that will are increasing their offerings at a higher rate than fund managers. The services firms plan on introducing or increasing were mixed between buy- and sell-side firms. Of buy-side firms fund management, wealth management and managed account services are expected to rise, while insurance related activity, retail brokerage and trading services are not. Sell-side firms plan to expand research services and retail brokerage units. Services for sell-side firms not expected to change much were sales trading, fund administration and market making. Page 8 # 2009 Financial Insights, an IDC Company

9 Operational Upgrades Anticipated changes for firms operational factors were limited. In fact, the majority (~77%) of firms do not see any changes coming. Of firms that do expect changes, most mentioned a slight uptick in IT investment and outsourcing of middle and back office operations. Large- and mid- tier firms were mainly the respondents that expected this change. The one area that showed slight pullback was staff hiring. A L I G N M E N T B E T W E E N I N T E R N A L S T A K E H O L D E R S The alignment of technology initiatives and a business's strategy or business model is vital for a firm's ability to transform itself. The study looked at whether IT and LOB executive responses varied regarding strategy and the various business model components to see where, if any, meaningful differences exist. The evidence suggests that overall there were not a large number of areas or topics that varied greatly between executive roles. This is a promising result that suggests firms are better communicating throughout the firm and are approaching concurrence on significant changes. Part of the reason IT may be more closely aligned currently is that IT buying decisions have come under more intense scrutiny, and needed approval from business executives in the first place. This concurrence puts buy- and sell-side firms in a better position to execute on the study's identified changes that are planned. While the variances tended to be relatively minor, several areas did show gaps in opinion among the two role types, and firms will be well-advised to expand their general concurrence to include these issues. Figure 6 shows the business model factors that had the greatest number of gaps. The most frequently mentioned business model factor - and consequently the largest variances - came from client related questions. Here, LOB executives had a stronger opinion of who the firm should be targeting. The other factor that showed meaningful variances was for offerings (products). Here, IT expected more change for products like commodities than their LOB colleagues. The take away from these identified gaps is that businesses still need to improve communications regarding strategy. Having variances on targeted clients, and on the projects IT believes it can support are challenges that need to be resolved. If plans are not well articulated on whom the firm plans to target and the type of products they want to offer, IT will be impacted long-term. The impacts are likely a more rigid system that cannot adapt quickly enough to client and product support needs, requiring subsequent IT fixes that are typically costly Financial Insights, an IDC Company # Page 9

10 F I G U R E 6 B u s i n e s s m o d e l f a c t o r s w i t h t h e g r e a t e s t n u m b e r o f d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n r o l e o p i n i o n s S L I G H T U P T I C K E X P E C T E D F O R S E L E C T T E C H N O L G I E S In the last quarter of 2008, IT budget forecasts for capital markets firms were dismal. The market events that transpired over the last half of 2008 guided forecast assumptions for 2009 much lower. But by the end of the first quarter of 2009, when the survey was fielded, many capital markets firms' responses suggest that 2008 cutbacks may have been deep enough. This idea is reinforced by evidence that respondents did not expect across the board reductions for the remaining part of This may indicate that the market is in a holding state on many large projects as it waits for more clarity on the direction of the economy. Whatever IT investments are made, firms will be doing so as economically possible and on a smaller scale. Not one category listed received a response that suggested there would be a strong increase (see Figure 7 and 8). The IT areas that firms most likely plan on enhancing, even if it is only at moderate levels, are risk, web security, infrastructure and client related technologies. Many of the technology choices were about improving data, be it for enhanced risk capabilities, improved customer data or managing compliance mandates. Overall, sell-side firms showed greater likelihood to increase IT investments (see Figure 9) in the future. Page 10 # 2009 Financial Insights, an IDC Company

11 F I G U R E 7 B u y - s i d e I T i n v e s t m e n t s e x p e c t e d t o m o d e r a t e l y i n c r e a s e IT Group Technology Risk Credit risk Compliance Infrastructure Data center consolidation 3.4 Web Security 3.7 Client Increasing consistency and accuracy of customer data Customer relationship management (CRM) Note: 3 = no change. Averages above indicated a moderate increase. A 5 = strong increase 2009 Financial Insights, an IDC Company # Page 11

12 F I G U R E 8 S e l l - s i d e I T i n v e s t m e n t s e x p e c t e d t o m o d e r a t e l y i n c r e a s e IT Group Technology Market risk 3.6 Risk Security and fraud management tools 3.6 Compliance 3.7 Infrastructure Enterprise SOA Server virtualization Network management Web Security 3.8 Information Mgmt. Collaboration technologies 3.6 Client Increasing consistency and accuracy of customer Customer relationship management (CRM) Note: 3 = no change. Averages above indicated a moderate increase. A 5 = strong increase F I G U R E 9 S e l l - s i d e I T i n v e s t m e n t s IT Group Firm Type Firm Size Technology 1 Technology 2 Technology 3 Broker Dealer > US$100 billion Capital Compliance Governance Security and fraud management tools Risk Investment Bank < US$10 billion Capital Counterparty risk Market risk US$10 billion - $100 billion Capital Compliance Security and fraud management tools Client Broker Dealer Investment Bank < US$10 billion Capital US$10 billion - $100 billion Capital Customer relationship management (CRM) Customer relationship management (CRM) Increasing consistency and accuracy of customer data Increasing consistency and accuracy of customer data Information Mgmt. Broker Dealer > US$100 billion Capital Market data consolidation Web Broker Dealer < US$10 billion Capital Security Performance Investment Bank US$10 billion - $100 billion Capital Security > US$100 billion Capital Collaboration technologies Collaboration technologies Page 12 # 2009 Financial Insights, an IDC Company

13 C O N C L U S I O N : T R A N S F O R M I N G T H E B U S I N E S S T O C R E A T E V A L U E From this study it is evident that capital markets firms are intent on changing their strategies to improve the 'fit' or interacting activities of the firm that will ultimately help create value (see figure 10). The transformations these firms appear to be after are improved internal knowledge sharing, customer experience, risk identification and ability to comply with regulations. Doing so should enable firms to create a more sustainable business model with improved value for its internal stakeholders and the firm's customers. F I G U R E 1 0 B u s i n e s s T r a n s f o r m a t ion C o p y r i g h t N o t i c e Copyright 2009 Financial Insights, an IDC company. Reproduction without written permission is completely forbidden. External Publication of Financial Insights Information and Data: Any Financial Insights information that is to be used in advertising, press releases, or promotional materials requires prior written approval from the appropriate Financial Insights Vice President. A draft of the proposed document should accompany any such request. Financial Insights reserves the right to deny approval of external usage for any reason Financial Insights, an IDC Company # Page 13

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