International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications. Robert J. Barro and Jong-Wha Lee. CID Working Paper No.

Transcription

1 Inernaional Daa on Educaional Aainmen: Updaes and Implicaions Rober J. Barro and Jong-Wha Lee CID Working Paper No. 42 April 2000 Copyrigh 2000 Rober J. Barro and Jong-Wha Lee and he Presiden and Fellows of Harvard College Working Papers Cener for Inernaional Developmen a Harvard Universiy

2 Inernaional Daa on Educaional Aainmen: Updaes and Implicaions Rober J. Barro and Jong-Wha Lee Absrac This paper presens a daa se ha improves he measuremen of educaional aainmen for a broad group of counries. We exend our previous esimaes of educaional aainmen for he populaion over age 15 and over age 25 up o 1995 and provide projecions for We discuss he esimaion mehod for he measures of educaional aainmen and relae our esimaes o alernaive inernaional measures of human capial socks. Keywords: Educaion, Human Capial Formaion JEL Classificaion Codes: I20, J24 Rober J. Barro Deparmen of Economics Harvard Universiy Liauer 120, Cambridge MA02138 USA rbarro@harvard.edu Jong-Wha Lee Economics Deparmen Korea Universiy Anam-Dong, Sungbuk-Ku Seoul , Korea jongwha@kuccnx.korea.ac.kr Originally presened a "Skill Measuremen and Economic Analysis- An Inernaional Conference," Universiy of Ken a Canerbury, England, March 27-29, This work was prepared while Jong-Wha Lee was a Visiing Fellow a he Cener for Inernaional Developmen a Harvard Universiy.

3 Inernaional Daa on Educaional Aainmen: Updaes and Implicaions Rober J. Barro and Jong-Wha Lee I. Inroducion Human capial, paricularly ha aained hrough educaion, has been emphasized as a criical deerminan of economic progress. A greaer amoun of educaional aainmen indicaes more skilled and more producive workers, who in urn increase an economy's oupu of goods and services. An abundance of well-educaed human resources also helps o faciliae he absorpion of advanced echnology from developed counries. In addiion, he level and disribuion of educaional aainmen has a srong impac on social oucomes, such as child moraliy, feriliy, educaion of children, and income disribuion. In order o quanify he relaionship beween educaional aainmen and economic and social oucome variables, here have been a number of aemps o measure educaional aainmen across counries. Earlier empirical sudies used school enrollmen raios or lieracy raes. These daa are widely available bu do no adequaely measure he aggregae sock of human capial available conemporaneously as an inpu o producion. Our earlier sudy filled his gap in daa by measuring educaional aainmen for a broad group of counries. 1 The figures were consruced a five-year inervals from 1960 o 1985 (Barro and Lee, 1993). The daa showed he disribuion of educaional aainmen of he adul populaion aged 25 and over by sex a seven levels of schooling. In our subsequen work (Barro and Lee, 1996), we provided an updae on he daa for he populaion aged 25 and over up o 1 Earlier aemps o consruc measure of educaional aainmen for inernaional comparisons include Psacharopoulos and Ariagada (1986), Lau e al. (1991), and Nehru e al. (1995). Their measures were hampered by more limied coverage of daa and by poenially larger measuremen errors han ours (see he discussion in foonoe 1 of Barro and Lee (1996)). 1

4 1990 and also consruced esimaes of aainmen for he populaion aged 15 and over. The over-15 age group corresponds beer o he labor force for many developing counries. In his paper, we provide a furher updae of educaional aainmen up o1995 and also consruc projecions o This daa se improves on our earlier esimaes in a number of respecs. Firs, our fill-in procedure for missing census/survey observaions now uses gross enrollmen raes, adjused for repeaers. This measure reflecs he inflows of new school graduaes o exising educaional socks more accuraely han he usual gross or ne enrollmen raios. Second, in he consrucion of average years of schooling, we now ake accoun of changes of school duraion over ime wihin counries. Our daa se on educaional aainmen provides good measures of he human capial sock for a broad number of counries. 2 The daa se comprises a leas one observaion for 142 economies, of which 109 have complee informaion a five-year inervals from 1960 o The percenage of he populaion who have successfully compleed a given level of schooling say secondary, eriary, or pos-primary schooling is a sraighforward way o show he populaion's aainmen of skills and knowledge associaed wih a paricular level of educaion. In pracice, however, each cycle of educaion has significan variaion in duraion across counries. We ake accoun of his variaion by using informaion on he ypical duraion of each level of schooling wihin counries. Wih hese daa we can also consruc measures of average years of schooling a all levels for each counry. 2 Our esimaes of educaional aainmen have been used in many previous sudies. Empirical work ha uses our daa se includes Rajan and Zingales (1998) and Ramey and Ramey (1995) in American Economic Review; Barro (1999) in Journal of Poliical Economy; Easerly and Levine (1998) and Hall and Jones (1999) in Quarerly Journal of Economics; and Sachs and Warner (1995) in Brookings Papers on Economic Aciviy. Up o February 2000, our papers on educaional aainmen daa (Barro and Lee,1993 and 1996) have been cied a leas 90 imes, according o he Social Science Ciaions Index. 2

5 Because human capial is mulifaceed and includes a complex se of human aribues, he sock of human capial held by individuals is hard o measure wih precision in a quaniaive form. Educaional aainmen is a bes a proxy for he componen of he human capial sock obained a schools. In secion IV, we relae our measure of educaional aainmen o alernaive measures of human capial, such as inernaional es scores, resuls from he inernaional adul lieracy survey, and esimaes of labor-marke oucomes. We also compare our numbers o he OECD's recen esimaes of educaional aainmen. II. The Esimaion of Educaional Aainmen This secion summarizes he main procedure for consrucing he esimaes of human capial sock and discusses he modificaions ha have been made in he presen updae. 1. Esimaion Mehod The esimaion procedure is a perpeual invenory mehod, using he census/survey observaions on aainmen as benchmark socks and new school enrans as flows ha are added o he socks wih an appropriae ime lag. The benchmark figures on school aainmen have been colleced, as before, from census/survey informaion, as compiled by UNESCO and oher sources. The census/survey figures repor he disribuion of educaional aainmen in he populaion sraified by age and by sex in, for mos cases, six caegories: no formal educaion, incomplee primary, complee primary, firs cycle of secondary, secondary cycle of secondary, and eriary. 3 The presen daa 3 The classificaion of levels of educaion is based on he common crierion for inernaional comparison ha was adoped in 1976 as he Inernaional Sandard Classificaion of Educaion (ISCED, 1976). Counries may no always classify diplomas and qualificaions a he same ISCED levels, so he UNESCO classificaion may differ from he naional classificaion. 3

6 se adds more census informaion for 1990 and 1995 and updaes he esimaes of educaional aainmen o This daa se also includes new observaions for he ransiional economies ha became independen in he 1990s. Tables 1 and 2 summarize he coverage of he census daa for wo groups of he oal populaion aged 15 and over and aged 25 and over. Table 1 shows he disribuion of counries by he number of census/survey observaions available since For persons aged 15 and over, 141 counries have a leas 1 observaion, and 72 counries have 3 or more observaions. Table 2 shows he disribuion of numbers of observaions by census-survey year since 1950 (where he underlying figures are applied o he neares 5-year value). For he populaion over age 15, 59 observaions are available for 1960, 62 for 1970, 75 for 1980, and 56 for The oal number of observaions is 379, of which 354 are beween 1960 and These 354 daa poins are used for he benchmark figures on educaional aainmen. We fill in mos of he missing observaions on school aainmen by using informaion on school-enrollmen raios and he srucure of populaion by age groups. Following he perpeual invenory mehod, we consruc curren flows of adul populaion ha are added o he benchmark socks. The formulas for he various levels of schooling for he populaion aged 15 and over are as follows. 4 ( 1) H 0. = H 0, 5 (1 δ ) + L15 * (1 PRI 5 ) ( 2) H. = H1, 5 (1 δ ) + L15 *( PRI 5 SEC 1 ) ( 3) 2. = H 2, 5 (1 δ ) + L15 * SEC H L20 * HIGH 4 For he procedure applied o he populaion aged 25 and over, see Barro and Lee (1993, par II). 4

7 ( 4) 3, = H 3, 5 (1 δ ) + H L20 * HIGH where H j is he number of persons aged 15 and over for whom j is he highes level of schooling aained; j=0 for no school, 1 for primary, 2 for secondary, and 3 for higher. L15 denoes he number of persons aged and L20 denoes he number of persons aged The variables PRI, SEC, and HIGH are he enrollmen raios for primary, secondary, and higher schools, respecively. The enrollmen raios are he gross raios adjused for school repeaers, as we will explain in he nex secion. The assumpion in equaions (1)-(4) is ha persons aged would have received primary schooling 5 years earlier (if hey were enrolled) and would receive secondary educaion conemporaneously. Persons aged would receive higher schooling conemporaneously. The variable is he moraliy rae for persons aged 15 and over and is esimaed from ( 5) = ( 15 + L L 5 L ) / L 5 δ, where L is he oal populaion aged 15 and over. The assumpion in equaions (1)-(4), which is no enirely accurae, is ha he moraliy rae is independen of he level of schooling aained. Subsiuion from equaion (5) ino equaions (1)-(4) yields he formulas ha we use o fill in he cells for he aainmen raios, h j = H j /L : ( 6) h0, H 0. / L = h0, 5[1 ( L15 / L )] + ( L15 / L ) *(1 PRI 5 ) ( 7) h, H1. / L = h1, 5[1 ( L15 / L )] + ( L15 / L ) *( PRI 5 SEC ) 1 ( 8) h2, H 2. / L = h2, 5[1 ( L15 / L )] + ( L15 / L ) * SEC ( L20 / L ) * HIGH ( 9) 3, H 3, / L = h3, 5[1 ( L15 / L )] + h ( L20 / L ) * HIGH 5

8 The applicaion of equaions (6)-(9) generaes our panel daa se on educaional aainmen for he populaion aged 15 and over from 1960 o 2000 a he four broad levels of schooling: no school, some primary, some secondary, and some higher. We hen break down he hree levels of schooling ino incomplee and complee educaion by using esimaes of compleion raios. 5 We use he same sources and mehodology o consruc a panel daa se on he educaional aainmen of females over age 15 and over age 25 a five-year inervals from 1960 o The daa on he disribuion of educaional aainmen among he populaion, combined wih he informaion for each counry on he duraion of school a each level, generae he number of years of schooling achieved by he average person a he various levels and a all levels of schooling combined. 2. Modificaions The presen esimaes and projecions improve on earlier daa by making a few modificaions in he fill-in procedure of missing observaions and in he consrucion of average years of schooling. Adjused gross enrollmen raios for he fill-in procedure Our procedure for filling in missing observaions requires school enrollmen raes. In he firs version of he daa se (Barro and Lee, 1993), we used he gross enrollmen raio, which is 5 The compleion raios for he age 25 and over populaion group are described in Barro and Lee (1993, Tables 4, 5, and 7). The compleion raios for he age 15 and over group are reconsruced from hose for he age 25 and over group. The adjusmen is ha secondary-school enrollees aged are reaed 6

9 defined as he raio of all persons enrolled a a given level of schooling o he populaion of he age group ha naional regulaion or cusom dicaes should be enrolled a ha level. For example, he oal regisered sudens in primary school are ypically compared wih he populaion aged 6-1l years. However, he gross raios will oversae he accumulaion of human capial when sudens repea grades. In he nex revision (Barro and Lee, 1996), we used he ne enrollmen raio, which is defined as he raio of sudens a a given level of schooling in he designaed age group o he oal populaion of ha age group. For example, he regisered sudens aged 6-11 years in primary school are compared wih he oal populaion aged 6-11 years. Accordingly, his concep does no coun sudens in primary school who are younger han 6 or older han 11. Ne enrollmen raios also inroduce measuremen error if here are under- or over-aged children saring each level of educaion. If a proporion of he populaion enrolls a a given level a an age consisenly earlier or laer han ha prescribed by regulaion and consequenly finishes school earlier or laer, hen ne enrollmen raios undersae he accumulaion of schooling capial. Sudens who sar school early or lae consiue a significan fracion of oal enrollmens in many counries. For insance, for 12 Sub-Saharan African counries, a large fracion beween 10 and 33%--of enrollmen in grade 1 of primary educaion is made up of sudens younger han he official enrance age. In 31 counries, a leas 50% of he sudens enrolled in grade 1 of primary school are older han he prescribed enry age (Gajraj, 1992). Alhough he over-aged sudens enrolled in his grade are due in par o repeiion, he incidence of a high proporion of over-aged sudens in counries where he proporion of repeaers is small demonsraes he imporance of lae enry. as incompleely educaed a he secondary level, and higher-school enrollees aged are reaed as incompleely educaed a he higher level. 7

10 In response o his problem, we have revised our fill-in procedure o use 'adjused gross enrollmen raios,' insead of he usual gross or ne raios, for primary and secondary schools. (We use he gross raios for eriary schools.) We consruc he new raios by adjusing he gross enrollmen raios for repeiion raes. 6 Changes in he duraion of years of schooling In he previous daa se, we provided average years of schooling a each level and a all levels of schooling combined as an aggregae measure of he educaional sock. To consruc he average years of schooling, we used each counry s ypical duraion of years of schooling a each level. For example, we assumed ha he populaion who compleed primary school obained he counry s full duraion of primary schooling (Barro and Lee, 1993, p.387). However, since our procedure used each counry s duraion daa for 1965, we did no ake accoun of changes over ime in a counry s ypical duraion of schooling a each level. This approach creaes measuremen error, because a significan number of counries have alered he duraions of heir school sysems. Over he las hree decades, 32 counries have changed a leas once he ypical duraion of schooling a he primary or secondary levels (see UNESCO, Saisical Yearbook, various years). In he presen revision, we ake accoun of changes in he duraion of schooling wihin counries. These changes would ake ime o become effecive because he pupils who have received educaion in he new sysem will be new enrans ino he adul populaion wih a long ime lag. We assume ha changes in he duraion of schooling a primary level apply o new 6 See Lee and Barro (1997) for a discussion of he repeiion daa. Alhough a proper accouning of he ne inflows o he human capial sock would also deduc dropous from gross enrollmens, he effec from dropous is already aken ino accoun by our measures of incomplee aainmen a primary and secondary schools. 8

11 enrans ino he populaion over age 15 in 10 years and ino he populaion over age 25 in 20 years, while he changes a secondary level become effecive for he populaion over age 15 in 5 years and for he populaion over age 25 in 15 years,. III. The Complee Daa Se on Educaional Aainmen, Appendix Tables A.1- A.2 conain he full daa se on aainmen a he seven levels of schooling for he overall populaion over age 25 and over age 15. Appendix Tables A.3- A.4 repor he same esimaes for he female populaion. The ables also repor he average number of years of schooling achieved by he average person in each counry. 7 Table 3 summarizes he schooling daa by region from 1960 o 2000 for 109 counries ha have complee informaion. The able considers groups of 23 advanced counries, 13 ransiional economies (TEs), and 73 developing counries. The developing group is furher broken down ino five regions: Middle Eas/Norh Africa (11 counries), Sub-Saharan Africa (22), Lain America/Caribbean (23), Eas Asia/Pacific (10), and Souh Asia (7). Regional averages are compued by weighing each counry's observaion by is share of he regional populaion aged 25 and over. Table 3 shows ha educaional progress has coninued in mos regions excep he ransiional economies in he 1990s. For he 23 advanced counries, he average years of schooling for persons aged 25 and over increased from 9.3 years in 1990 o 9.8 years in For he 73 developing counries, he average years of aainmen grew by 23% from 4.0 years in 1990 o 4.9 years in In he 13 TEs, he average years of schooling remained a he same 7 The Appendix Tables and he complee panel daa se including he average number of years of schooling a he various levels will be available from he web sie of he Cener for Inernaional Developmen a Harvard Universiy (hp:// 9

12 level of 10.0 years in he 1990s. Among he developing regions, Sub-Saharan Africa and Middle Eas/Norh Africa showed he sronges progress, growing by abou 35% in he 1990s from 2.8 o 3.8 years and from 3.8 o 5.1 years, respecively. Alhough he educaional progress of he developing region as a whole has been relaively srong over he las decade, he educaion level in his region sill lags far behind he advanced and TE regions. For he developing counries in 2000, 37% of he populaion aged 25 and over sill had no formal schooling and only 27% had some secondary educaion. For he advanced and ransiion counries groups, in conras, abou wo-hirds of he populaion over age 25 had a leas some secondary schooling. Table 4 presens he ime-series daa on educaional aainmen by group for he populaion aged 15 and over. The regional paerns are similar o hose for he populaion aged 25 and over. For mos regions, he average years of schooling for he aged 15 and over populaion group are slighly higher han hose for he aged 25 and over group. For he developing counries as a whole in 2000, he populaion aged 15 and over is projeced o have an average school aainmen of 5.1 years, compared o 4.9 years for he populaion aged 25 and over. We have also consruced he daa on educaional aainmen for he female populaion over age 25 and over age 15. Table 5 uses hese resuls and compares he regional figures for females wih hose for males for he period from 1960 o 2000 by region. The able shows he "gender raio," defined as he raio of female o male aainmen (expressed as a percenage). In all regions, here has been a subsanial rise in gender equaliy over he las decade. In he developing counries as a whole, he raio rose from 63% in 1990 o 70% in 2000 for he populaion aged 25 and over, and from 69% in 1990 o 73% in 2000 for he populaion aged 15 10

13 and over. During his period, he raios rose noably in Middle Eas/Norh Africa (57% o 68% for he populaion over age 25) and Souh Asia (44% o 53% for he same age group). Noe, however, ha he gender gap in educaion is sill large in hese regions, compared o hose in he advanced, TEs, and Lain American regions, where he raios are ypically well over 90%. 11

14 IV. Comparisons wih Alernaive Measures of he Human Capial Sock Our esimaes of educaional aainmen provide a reasonable proxy for he sock of schooling capial for a broad group of counries. However, hese daa have a number of shorcomings. Firs, he measure of educaional aainmen does no ake accoun of he skills and experience gained by individuals afer heir formal educaion. Second, he measure does no direcly measure he human skills obained a schools and, specifically, does no ake accoun of differences in he qualiy of schooling across counries. In his secion, we compare our concep of educaional aainmen wih alernaive measures of he sock of human capial. 1. Inernaional Tes Scores by Sudens An alernaive measure of educaional sock, which is considered o reflec variaions of educaional qualiy across counry, is scores on inernaionally comparable ess of educaional achievemen. Concepually, he qualiy of educaion is refleced in he performance of sudens and graduaes. One indicaor of schooling qualiy is sudens scores on inernaionally comparable ess. Hanushek and Kim (1995) consruced a cross-secion daa se of inernaional es scores in he subjecs of science and mahemaics for 39 counries. Lee and Barro (1997) have compiled es scores on he examinaions in science, mahemaics, and reading ha have been conduced in various years for up o 58 counries by he Inernaional Associaion for he Evaluaion of Educaional Achievemen (IEA) and he Inernaional Assessmen of Educaional Progress (IAEP). These sudies cover primary or secondary sudens of he same age or grade group, such as age 9, age 13, and pupils in he las year of secondary educaion. Since he ess are carefully designed o ensure inernaional comparabiliy, he es scores would capure he 12

15 cross-counry variaions in cogniive skills of he sudens and hereby measure differences in he qualiy of he fuure labor force. Hanushek and Kim (1995) and Barro (2000) find ha es scores are posiively relaed o growh raes of real per capia GDP in cross-counry regressions. One shorcoming of hese daa, however, is ha he observaions apply o differen years and are mos abundan for he 1990s. The sample sizes are also much smaller han hose for average years of schooling. Table 6 shows he average es scores on mahemaics and science for he sudens a he sevenh grade for 39 counries ha paricipaed in he Third Inernaional Mahemaics and Science Sudy (TIMSS) in 1994 and The scores are expressed on proficiency scales (scales ranging from 0 o 1000, wih a mean of 500 and a sandard deviaion of 100). Among he 39 paricipaing counries, sudens in he four Eas Asian economies, Singapore, Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong, showed he highes achievemen in he mahemaics. Their average scores, ranging from 564 (Hong Kong) o 601 (Singapore) are well above he inernaional average of 484. In conras, Souh Africa and Colombia performed significanly less well han he oher counries, wih means below 400. The paern of he counry performances is similar for science achievemen. The correlaion beween he wo es scores is The correlaion beween hese sudens' es scores and average years of schooling is no very high. The correlaion of average years of schooling in 1995 wih he mahemaics or science es score is The saisical significance of a es-scores variable in cross-counry growh regressions, even when he average years of schooling are held consan, indicaes ha he es scores provide useful informaion abou a counry s qualiy of educaion. 2. Inernaional Adul Lieracy Tes 13

16 Alhough he es scores of sudens reflec he qualiy of schooling and, hence, indicae he qualiy of he labor force, hey do no direcly measure he educaional capial held by a counry s working-age populaion. Knowledge can be gained or los afer he compleion of formal educaion. Ideally, ess of cogniive abiliy would be adminisered o aduls, as well as o sudens. Recenly, he Inernaional Adul Lieracy Survey (IALS) has, for he firs ime, provided a direc comparison of cerain work-relaed skills in he adul populaions of various counries. Alhough lieracy was previously reaed as a dichoomous concep eiher lierae or no he OECD sudy considered he mulifaceed naure of lieracy and made effors o measure direcly he skills of he adul populaion. 8 Lieracy was measured in hree domains prose lieracy, documen lieracy, and quaniaive lieracy. The lieracy skills were evaluaed in each counry hrough deailed inerviews wih a sample of 2,000 and 8,000 persons in he working-age populaion. Resuls were repored on a scale from 0 o 500 in each of he hree domains. 9 The IALS sudy is sill in early sages and covers only 12 OECD counries. Seven counries paricipaed in he firs Survey Canada, Germany, he Neherlands, Poland, Sweden, Swizerland (French-speaking and German-speaking, separaely), and he Unied Saes. Five addiional counries paricipaed laer Ausralia, Belgium (Flanders), Ireland, New Zealand, and he Unied Kingdom (see OECD and Saisics Canada, 1995, and OECD and Human Resources Developmen Canada, 1998). 8 The IALS defines "lieracy" in erms of paricular skills of aduls "using prined and wrien informaion o funcion in sociey, o achieve one's goals, and o develop one's knowledge and poenial" (OECD and Saisics Canada, 1995, p.3). 9 For analyical purposes, he scores were also repored by five levels of lieracy: Level 1 (0 o 225 poins) indicaes persons wih very poor lieracy skills, while Levels 4-5 ( poins) indicae ha persons have he capaciy o use higher-order hinking and informaion-processing skills. 14

17 Table 6 shows he mean scores in each of he hree domains for he 12 OECD counries. Sweden was he bes performer in all domains, while Poland was he wors in all domains. The scores among he hree domains are highly correlaed, wih correlaion coefficiens over One surprising observaion is he significan discrepancy in achievemen beween sudens and aduls. Figure 1 depics he TIMMS mahemaics score and he IALS quaniaive lieracy score. The correlaion beween he wo scores is only 0.07 in he common sample of 11 counries. In he scaer plo, however, Sweden seems o show an excepionally large gap beween he wo es scores. The Swedish aduls were he bes performers in he quaniaive lieracy es, bu he sevenh-grade sudens showed very poor performance in he mahemaics es in Sudies based on he IALS daa show ha hese measures of lieracy have a significan relaion wih gross earnings of individuals wihin a counry, independenly from he effecs of educaion (OECD and Human Resources Developmen Canada, 1998). 3. Esimaes of he Marke Value of Human Capial Anoher approach o measuring he sock of human capial is o assess differences in labor-marke oucomes, such as earnings or employmen of educaed workers, ha are aribuable o he individuals' schooling. Along his line, here have been aemps o measure he human capial sock in erms of is marke value. A labor-income-based measure is derived by weighing differen segmens of he workforce by he raio of earnings a differen levels of educaion. Gollop and Jorgenson (1980); Jorgenson, Gollop, and Fraumeni (1987); and 10 The Swedish sudens a age 13 also showed below-average achievemen in he Second Inernaional Mahemaics Sudy ha was conduced for 20 counries in In conras, in he same es, he 12 h grade sudens did very well, wih he average score only lower han ha of Finland among he OECD counries. This fac suggess ha sudens aain significan quaniaive skills a he secondary level. 15

18 Mulligan and Sala-I-Marin (1995) used his mehod o esimae he human-capial sock of he Unied Saes. This measure, however, is no widely applicable o inernaional comparisons due o he limied availabiliy of deailed wage daa for mos counries. A relaed issue is wheher esimaed raes of reurn, raher han duraions of school, should be used as weighs in he consrucion of aggregae human capial. Collins and Bosworh (1996) and Priche (1996) employed his mehod o consruc measures of aggregae educaional aainmen. Since he esimaed raes of reurn measure produciviy of educaion a each level, his measure is concepually beer han average years of schooling. A measure of average years of schooling assumes unrealisically ha a year of educaion adds a consan quaniy of human capial, wheher underaken by a primary pupil or a college suden. One problem wih he measure aggregaed by raes of reurn, however, is ha he available esimaes of reurns o schooling are no always accurae. For insance, he esimaes may over-sae reurns because of he likely posiive correlaion beween schooling and unmeasured characerisics such as abiliy. The significan variaions in he available esimaes for an individual counry show ha he esimaes of reurns are very sensiive o assumpions abou social benefis, forgone earnings of sudens, and so on. 4. OECD Esimaes of Educaional Aainmen The OECD has also compiled daa on educaional aainmen of he populaion in he 1990s. Mos daa come from labor-force survey based on small samples of households or individuals, in conras o he naional censuses in he UNESCO daabase (see OECD, 1998b, pp ). For he years around 1995, he OECD daa se covers 32 counries 24 OECD counries and 8 non-oecd counries. 16

19 This daa se presens he percenages of he populaion or labor force aged beween 25 and 64 for whom he highes compleed level of educaion falls ino four caegories: below upper-secondary educaion, upper-secondary educaion, non-universiy eriary educaion, and universiy-level educaion. 11 One advanage of hese esimaes is ha he populaion group covered corresponds closely o he labor force in he ypical OECD counry. However, he age group is less appropriae for developing counries, in which a subsanial fracion of persons aged beween 15 and 24 are in he workforce. The OECD esimaes of educaional aainmen correspond well o our numbers. Table 7 compares he wo measures in erms of he percenage of he adul populaion aged 25 o 64 for he OECD and aged 25 and over in our measure by he level of schooling. We find he firs OECD caegory- below upper secondary, would correspond roughly o he sum of our firs hree caegories- no schooling, primary schooling, and parial secondary. In he common sample of 31 counries, he correlaion beween he wo esimaes is The OECD esimaes of he populaion aaining upper secondary or higher educaion are also highly correlaed wih our measure of average years of schooling. The correlaion is Noneheless, here are significan differences beween he OECD and our daa for some counries. For several counries, he OECD esimaes show ha he adul populaion had much higher aainmen a upper-secondary and above han our esimaes. For example, he OECD esimae shows abou 84% of adul populaion in Germany aained educaion a he uppersecondary or eriary level in 1995, while our esimae indicaes he corresponding number is only 48%. The discrepancy derives, in many cases, from he differen classificaion beween he OECD and he UNESCO sources. There is disagreemen beween inernaional organizaions 11 The OECD publicaion also provides esimaes for educaional aainmen of he populaion by sex and by disaggregaed age groups, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, and

20 abou he allocaion of differen educaion and raining o he caegories of he inernaional sandard classificaion (Seedman, 1999). Alhough he ISCED provides guidance on which qualificaions and sages of educaion should be assigned o he ISCED caegories, he ISCED classificaions do no fully reflec he heerogeneiy of educaion sysem, in paricular of vocaional and non-academic educaional raining, across counries. In addiion, when conflicing inerpreaions are possible, naional governmens can divide or reallocae qualificaion caegories for he poliical consideraions. Seedman (2000) poins ou ha he UK chooses a definiion of he ISCED levels which gives he impression ha he educaion sysem produces a large supply of skills. Anoher source of he discrepancy is ha our daa refer o he populaion aged 25 and above, bu he OECD daa are for he populaion of age beween 25 and 64. Since he populaion aged 65 and above have in general lower aainmen han he younger populaion group, his difference would end o make he OECD figures on upper secondary or eriary aainmen higher han our corresponding numbers. Furher invesigaions on he exac relaionship beween our esimaes and he OECD daa on educaional aainmen are sill in progress. 12 V. Conclusion This paper presens a daa se on educaional aainmen for he populaion over age 15 and over age 25 a five-year inervals beween 1960 and 2000 for a broad number of counries. The daa provide he disribuion of educaional aainmen of he populaion a seven levels of schooling and show a breakdown by sex. 12 Since he OECD and he UNESCO sources use differen populaion groups and differen school classificaions, we have no uilized he OECD daabase for he esimaion of our measure of educaional 18

21 This improved daa se on educaional aainmen will coninue o conribue o empirical research in many areas. Our daa have been widely used o invesigae he effecs on economic growh of educaional aainmen, measured by overall years of schooling as well as by he composiion of aainmen a various levels of educaion. The daa se has also been useful for sudying he linkages across counries beween educaion and oher imporan economic and social variables, such as expor compeiiveness, feriliy, income inequaliy, and poliical freedom. There has been considerably more work in improving inernaional measures of human capial. Inernaional es scores of sudens a he primary and secondary levels provide useful informaion on he qualiy of educaion. The Inernaional Adul Lieracy Survey is a very promising aemp o measure direcly he skills of he workforce for inernaional comparison. However, hese measures are a presen resriced by he limied sample, which consiss mosly of OECD counries. For fuure use, inernaional effors o exend he coverage of he IALS o more developing counries will be imporan. This exension would make i possible o assess he ineracions beween he quaniy and qualiy of educaion for a broad panel of counries. I would also be possible o sudy furher he effecs of human capial on economic performance and o see how hese effecs inerac wih he level of economic developmen. aainmen. The OECD sources are available only for he 1990s. Hence, if we mix hem wih he earlier UNESCO census daa, i can cause inconsisency over ime in an individual counry's daa. 19

22 References Barro R.J., (1999)"Deerminans of Democracy," Journal of Poliical Economy 107, Suppl., December, S158-S183. Barro, R.J. (2000), "Educaion and Economic Growh," mimeo, Harvard Universiy. Barro, R.J. and J.W. Lee (1993), "Inernaional Comparisons of Educaional Aainmen," Journal of Moneary Economics, 32: Barro, R.J. and J.W. Lee (1996), "Inernaional Measures of Schooling Years and Schooling Qualiy," American Economic Review, 86(2), May: Collins, S. and B. Bosworh (1996), "Economic Growh in Eas Asia: Accumulaion versus Assimilaion," Brookings Papers on Economic Aciviy 2: Easerly, W, and Levine, R, (1998), "Africa's Growh Tragedy: Policies and Ehnic Divisions," Quarerly Journal of Economics 112, November, Gajraj, Suren (1992), "Primary Educaion- Age in Grade 1," Division of Saisics, UNESCO, November. Gollop, Frank M. and Dale W; Jorgenson (1980), "U.S. Produciviy Growh by Indusry, , in New Developmens in Produciviy Measuremen," edied by J. Kendrick and B. Vaccara, The Universiy of Chicago Press, Jorgenson, Dale W., Frank M. Gollop and Barbara M. Fraumeni (1987), Produciviy and U.S. Economic Growh, Cambridge, Harvard Universiy Press. Hall, R.E, and Jones, C.I, (1999), "Why Do Some Counries Produce So Much More Oupu Per Worker Than Ohers?", Quarerly Journal of Economics 114, February, Hanushek, Eric, and Dongwook Kim (1995), "Schooling, Labor Force Qualiy, and Economic Growh," Rocheser Cener for Economic Research, working paper no. 411, Sepember. Lau, L, D. Jamison, and F. Loua (1991), "Educaion and Produciviy in Developing Counries: an Aggregae Producion Funcion Approach," Repor no. WPS 612, The World Bank, March. Lee, J.W. and R. J. Barro (1997), "Schooling Qualiy in a Cross-secion of Counries," NBER Working Paper 6198, Sepember. Mulligan, Casey B. and Xavier Sala-I-Marin (1995), "A Labor-Income Based Measure of he Value of Human Capial: An Applicaion o he Saes of he Unied Saes," NBER Working Paper No

23 Nehru, V., E. Swanson, and A. Dubey (1995), "A New Daa Base on Human Capial Sock: Sources, Mehodology, and Resuls," Journal of Developmen Economics, 46(April), OECD (1998a), Human Capial Invesmen: An Inernaional Comparison, Cenre for Educaional Research and Innovaion, OECD (1998b), Educaion A A Glance: OECD Indicaors, Cenre for Educaional Research and Innovaion, OECD and Saisics Canada (1995), Lieracy, Economy and Sociey- Resuls of he Firs Inernaional Adul Lieracy Survey, Paris and Oawa. OECD and Human Resources Developmen Canada (1998), Lieracy Skills for he Knowledge Sociey: Furher Resuls from he Inernaional Adul Lieracy Survey, Paris and Oawa. Priche, L. (1996), "Where Has All he Educaion Gone?" World Bank Working Paper No Psacharopoulos, G. and A.M. Ariagada (1986), "The Educaional Composiion of he Labor Force: an Inernaional Comparison," Inernaional Labor Review, 125(Sepember/Ocober), Rajan, RG and Zingales, L, (1998), "Financial Dependence and Growh," American Economic Review 88, June, Ramey, G, and Ramey, VA, (1995)"Cross-counry Evidence on he Link Beween Volailiy and Growh," American Economic Review 85, December, Sachs, J.D., and Warner, A, (1995) "Economic Reform and The Process of Global Inegraion," Brookings Papers on Economic Aciviy, Seedman, H. (1999) "Measuring he Qualiy of Educaional Oupus: Some Unresolved Problems," forhcoming in Alexander R., Broadfoo P, and Phillips D. Learning from Comparing: New Direcions in Comparaive Educaion Research, Triangle Books, Seedman, H. (2000) "Looking Ino he Qualificaions 'Black Box': Wha Can Inernaional Surveys Tell Us Abou Basic Compeence?" Mimeo., Cenre For Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Poliical Science. UNESCO, Saisical Yearbook, various years, Paris. 21

24 Table 1 Breakdown of Number of Counries By Number of Census-Survey Observaions Number of Observaions Number of Counries ( ) Populaion Populaion aged 25& over aged 15& over Toal Noe: The daa refer o census-survey observaions for educaional aainmen for he oal and female populaions in each age caegory. 22

25 Table 2 Breakdown of Number of Counries By Number of Census-Survey Year Census-survey year Number of Counries (o he neares 5-year value) Populaion Populaion aged 25& over aged 15& over Toal Toal Noe: The daa refer o census-survey observaions for educaional aainmen for he oal and female populaions in each age caegory. 23

26 Table 3 Trends of Educaional Aainmen of he Toal Populaion Aged 25 and Over by Region Highes level aained Average Region Year Pop. No Primary Secondary Higher Years (no. of over 25 School Toal Full Toal Full Toal Full of counries) (mill.) (Percenage of he populaion aged 25 and over) School World (109) All Developing (73) Middle Eas/ Norh Africa (11) Sub-Saharan Africa (22) Lain Ameri./ Caribbean (23)

27 Table 3--coninued Highes level aained Average Region Year Pop. No Primary Secondary Higher Years (no. of over 25 School Toal Full Toal Full Toal Full of counries) (mill.) (Percenage of he populaion aged 25 and over) School Eas Asia/ Pacific (10) Souh Asia (7) Advanced Counries (23) Transiional economies (13) Noes: Regional averages are weighed by each counry's populaion. See Appendix Tables for he lis of counries included in each region/group. Former Germany, Eas is classified as Transiional economies group unil 1990 and since hen belongs o Advanced counries group as he unied Germany. Former Sovie Union counries excep Russian Republic are excluded since The group of ransiional economies includes Croaia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Slovenia since "Toal" refers o he percenage of he populaion for whom he indicaed level is he highes aained. "Full" refers o hose who had he compleion of he indicaed level as he highes aained. 25

28 Table 4 Trends of Educaional Aainmen of he Toal Populaion Aged 15 and Over by Region Highes level aained Average Region Year Pop. No Primary Secondary Higher Years (no. of over 15 School Toal Full Toal Full Toal Full of counries) (mill.) (Percenage of he populaion aged 15 and over) School World (109) All Developing (73) Middle Eas/ Norh Africa (11) Sub-Saharan Africa (22) Lain Ameri./ Caribbean (23)

29 Table 4--coninued Highes level aained Average Region Year Pop. No Primary Secondary Higher Years (no. of over 15 School Toal Full Toal Full Toal Full of counries) (mill.) (Percenage of he populaion aged 15 and over) School Eas Asia/ Pacific (10) Souh Asia (7) Advanced Counries (23) Transiional economies (13) Noe: See able 3. 27

30 Table 5 Educaional Aainmen by Sex Region Populaion Age 25 and Over Populaion Age 15 and Over (no. of Year Average school year Average school year counries) Females (A) Males (B) Gender raio (A/B,%) Females (A) Males (B) Gender raio (A/B,%) World (109) All Developing (73) Middle Eas/ Norh Africa (11) Sub-Saharan Africa (22) Lain Ameri./ Caribbean (23)

31 Table 5--coninued Region Populaion Age 25 and Over Populaion Age 15 and Over (no. of Year Average school year Average school year Counries) Females (A) Males (B) Gender raio (A/B,%) Females (A) Males (B) Gender raio (A/B,%) Eas Asia/ Pacific (10) Souh Asia (7) Advanced Counries (23) Transiional economies (13) Noe: The "World" does no include former Sovie Union counries excep Russia since See Noes o Table 3. 29

32 Table 6. Inernaional Tes by Sudens (TIMMS) and Aduls (IALS), Mean Scores and Rank Scores of 7h Grade(TIMMS) Scores of Adul Lieracy Tes (IALS) Counry Mah. Science Prose Documen Quaniaive Ausralia Ausria Belgium (French) Bulgaria Canada Colombia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark France Germany Greece Hong Kong Hungary Iceland Iran, I.R. of Ireland Japan Korea Lavia Lihuania Neherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Porugal Romania Russian Federaion Singapore Slovak Republic Slovenia Souh Africa Spain Sweden Swizerland Thailand U. K Unied Saes

33 Table 6. coninued, Noes: The TIMMS scores are expressed on proficiency scales (scales ranging from 0 o 1000, wih a mean of 500 and a sandard deviaion of 100). The IALS es scores are evaluaed on a scale of 0 o 500 in each of hree domains. For he TIMMS score, Belgium is French-speaking region, and for he IALS score, Belgium is Belgium (Flanders), and Swizerland is French-speaking region. Ialics indicae he rank of he counry among he paricipaing counries. Source: IEA, Third Inernaional Mahemaics and Science Sudy, , and OECD and Human Resources Developmen Canada (1998), Lieracy Skills for he Knowledge Sociey: Furher Resuls from he Inernaional Adul Lieracy Survey, Paris and Oawa. 31