ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN YOUR REGIONAL SUPPLY CHAINS CHRIS BROWN SENIOR ASSOCIATE REMI

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1 ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN YOUR REGIONAL SUPPLY CHAINS CHRIS BROWN SENIOR ASSOCIATE REMI

2 Regional Economy Through the Lens of REMI

3 Defining Supply Chains Firm Supply Chain Management vs Inter-industry demand

4 Input Output What it takes to produce a dollar of output

5 Regional Supply Chains I/O shows flow of dollars across industries Regional models account for borders Regional Purchase Coefficients tell us how much of demand is supplied locally Industry A Imports/Exports Relative prices and distances drive trade Imports/Exports

6 Modeling Strategies 1. Baseline - Help to understand your current strengths and weaknesses. 2. Simulations - Model scenarios to test relative impacts of different sectors

7 Regional Baseline What are strong industries High output Location Quotients High RPC High growth What are weak industries Declining Output High Imports Demographics Existing Occupations Commuter Flows Per Capita Concepts

8 RPC s Motion Picture, sound recording and video production in all CA counties

9 Industry Snapshot Motion picture, video, and sound recording industries Demand Los Angeles County San Diego County Orange County Santa Clara County Self Supply Los Angeles County Alameda County San Francisco County Santa Clara County San Diego County LA County Exports Category Motion picture, video, and sound recording industries Accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping, and payroll services Independent artists, writers, and performers

10 Industry Sales Growth Output Growth in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Equipment Manufacturing

11 Industry Output Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Equipment Manufacturing Output Growth (Billions of fixed 2005$) $ Growth $ Growth % Growth % Growth Santa Clara County % 63.6% San Francisco County % 62.2% San Diego County % 72.7%

12 Economic Impact Analysis Targeting Industries What industries have largest regional impact? Industry A Where are opportunities for import substitution? Imports/Exports Imports/Exports

13 Targeting Industries Run Multiple Simulations Use a standard input across multiple sectors Run over multiple years Evaluate and Score Multiple Results Jobs/Quality of Jobs Average wages GDP contribution

14 Economic Impact Simulation Santa Clara County, CA Simulation INPUT Increase in Sales (billions $) Motion Picture, video and sound recording RESULTS Change in Employment (thousands) Gross Domestic Product (billions$) Output (billions$)

15 Intermediate Demand Santa Clara County, CA (billion $) Computer and electronic product manufacturing Wholesale trade Professional, scientific, and technical services Management of companies and enterprises Chemical manufacturing Fabricated metal product manufacturing Primary metal manufacturing Real estate Administrative and support services Monetary authorities - central bank; Credit intermediation what does REMI and say? related sm activities; Funds, trusts, & other financial vehicles

16 Imports to Santa Clara County, CA Category Total Imports Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing Management of companies and enterprises Wholesale trade Basic chemical manufacturing Nonferrous metal (except aluminum) production and processing

17 In Short Regional Models and Supply Chains Better understand existing relationships Target Industries Economic Impact Import Substitution

Figure 11.1 Changes in California Gross State Product versus Changes in U.S. Gross Domestic Product, 1980 1994. California U.S.

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