A True Roller Coaster Ride: Sourcing Markets Force Fashion Players to Paradigm Change. Kurt Salmon Global Sourcing Reference 2015 [12th Edition]

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1 A True Roller Coaster Ride: Sourcing Markets Force Fashion Players to Paradigm Change Kurt Salmon Global Sourcing Reference 2015 [12th Edition]

2 Increases of sourcing costs in China and other important sourcing markets, the weakness of the Euro versus the Dollar and many local currencies, political turbulences and increasing social challenges these factors transform sourcing into a turbulent roller coaster ride with many ups and downs, as the 12th edition of the Kurt Salmon Global Sourcing Reference 2015 confirms. Facing the strong cost increases from traditional key sourcing markets, brands and retailers are, more than ever, searching for alternatives in their global sourcing portfolios which allow them to protect gross margins while maintaining key requirements regarding quality, capabilities, innovation, and corporate social responsibility. It is therefore not surprising that the key concerns raised in this edition s Global Sourcing Executive Survey have been increasing labour costs and unfavourable development of currency exchange rates in combination with demand market price pressure on margins. At the same time, fashion companies are facing the strong need to move closer to markets when developing ranges to maintain competitiveness in a fast paced market environment with quickly changing trends and low predictability. However, speed must not sacrifice product innovation, social compliance or product quality which would put uniqueness and character of the brand at risk. Although companies are forced to make massive adjustments of their traditional sourcing strategies, it is also an opportunity to enter new high-potential sourcing regions, shorten transport routes and reduce the dependency on China as the number one production country. More than ever, differentiated supply chains with the ability to flexibly prioritise speed, cost, and innovation based on true range and consumer needs, are the key tools for successful product development and sourcing operations. THE CARDS ARE BEING RESHUFFLED SOURCING BEYOND CHINA The pace of change in today s sourcing environment has been particularly obvious in recent months (see exhibit 1). China, a former guarantor of low production costs and a stable currency, has experienced a record rise in production costs while desperately trying to mitigate the comparative strength of the Yuan. Although China is still the biggest exporter in apparel, there is an ongoing decrease in market share. While this process started relatively slowly with a loss of 3% from 2010 to 2012, today it is in full progress with a reduction from over 40% in Exhibit 1: Production Cost Index changes of selected countries % % % % % % % Ba desh China Low China High India Morocco Myanmar Turkey PCI: Production Cost Index = indicator of the relative production cost advantages by country per Standard Allowed Minute (PCI UK = 100) Source: Kurt Salmon Global Sourcing Reference %-increase Kurt Salmon Global Sourcing Reference 2015

3 peak times to a total market share of 32% in 2014 (see exhibit 2). PCI (Production Cost Index) is a measure developed by Kurt Salmon. Its calculation is based on multiple factors e.g. labour costs and conditions, degree of productivity and depreciation in the respective countries in relation to UK. UK PCI is set to 100. Production costs in China are almost reaching the level of Eastern Europe and Turkey (PCI 47), and are even exceeding costs in southern European rim locations such as Morocco (PCI 31). As China has longer transportation lead times, and as a consequence considerable less sourcing flexibility, its competitive strength erodes rapidly China is no longer a low cost production country. Wages have tripled over the last decade and productivity gains had not been able to level out this effect on overall production cost. On the other end of the cost continuum, Myanmar and Bangladesh show the lowest PCI values, 12 and 14 respectively. Ongoing efforts to improve social and infrastructural conditions, such as the established minimum wages in both countries, indicate further increases in sourcing costs for the future but still on a very competitive PCI level. Bangladesh is gaining market share both in sourcing for Europe and North America. It is still mainly focused on less complex products, but it has the potential to further strengthen its relative position, if production capabilities can evolve and quality can be improved, while ensuring social and environmental compliance standards. Recovering from the embargo, Myanmar has begun its comeback to the textile and apparel business. The country has deep experience in the textile industry, but it does not cover all parts of the value chain. However, foreign direct investment tripled within the last two years emphasising the high potential. The consequences of current developments become evident when looking at the detailed shifts in sourcing volumes across many product categories. Denim apparel shows a clear move away from China, which lost 7% in 2014 while Exhibit 2: Top apparel exporters to EU15, 2014 (m ) Sourcing Volume Growth Rates 2013 to 2014 China 32% 1,6% Bangladesh 15% 15,7% Turkey India Morocco 3% 6% 12% Share of China was 40% at peak times 1,8% 5,0% 2,9% Cambodia 31,3% Romania Poland Vietnam 4,2% 8,5% 13,3% Tunisia -2,3% Pakistan 15,8% Sri Lanka Indonesia Bulgaria Czech Republic 3,0% 1,6% 3,1% 2,1% Source: Eurostat Kurt Salmon Global Sourcing Reference

4 most other markets have been able to strengthen their position. The numbers also show that it is not pure cost considerations which lead fashion retailers away from China. Shifts to Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Cambodia are motivated to save costs. However, at the same time sourcing volumes are moved to regions with higher production costs, but which are located closer to the consumer markets, and thus offering shorter lead times and a higher reactivity to new trends in those markets. Looking at the example of denim, Turkey, Tunisia, and Poland have been able to expand their position although cost structures are significantly higher than in the traditional Asian low cost countries (see exhibit 3). These countries offer better prices but with the limitations of slow reaction times, lower capability levels, and more need for concern with regards to CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility). China is wedged in the middle between both ends of the continuum, neither being fast nor cheap. Nevertheless the high level of capability and integration of production in China will no doubt continue to play a major role in the coming years. These developments are further supported by the survey of global leaders in sourcing. Highest future growth potential is observed in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Myanmar in contrast to expected ongoing losses in China (see exhibit 4). Despite China s cost increase counter measures, it is clear that China will no longer be the sole destination for many product categories. Fashion companies therefore need to review country portfolios and redistribute sourcing activities and volumes based on this new normal of sourcing. This requires a clear understanding of true requirements per division and product with regards to competing objectives to be realised in the sourcing portfolio. Exhibit 3: Sourcing market polarisation the example of denim 2014 versus 2013 Denim (import value in %) +16% +9% -7% +32% +4% +5% +-0% -3% +14% +9% Ba desh Turkey China Pakistan Tunisia Poland Morocco Czech Rep. Cambodia Egypt Polarisation: shift to low cost, low flexibility Ba desh Pakistan Cambodia Polarisation: shift to more flexibility, higher cost Turkey Tunisia Poland Source: Kurt Salmon Global Sourcing Reference Kurt Salmon Global Sourcing Reference 2015

5 Exhibit 4: Expected future winners and losers results of the Kurt Salmon Global Sourcing Executive Survey How do you expect sourcing markets to develop in the future? Strong Increase Strong Decrease Vietnam B desh Turkey Myanmar Cambod. India Romania Indon. Pakistan Ethiopia Morocco China China central and western provinces Source: Kurt Salmon Survey on Sourcing 2015 (Expected development) eastern and coastal provinces OPERATIONAL CONSEQUENCES: RANGE ARCHITECTURE DRIVES DIFFERENTIATED SUPPLY CHAINS In the past, many companies operated well with relatively static sourcing approaches as price pressure was limited. China s workforce seemed to offer unlimited capacity at low cost only few fast fashion companies brought products into the market in short cycles while the vast majority of the market operated with long lead times. Given today s demand market structures and sourcing market complexities, a much more differentiated approach is required. Basics typically have longer lifecycles at the POS than fashion items and require less innovation over time. However, they are vulnerable to competitor pricing and require tight margin management. Hence longer sourcing lead times are acceptable for the benefit of lower sourcing costs. Fashion ranges within the assortment, on the other hand, are more critical than ever before to responding to consumer trends and leveraging latest market insight and innovation to strengthen the brand s competitive position and uniqueness. For these assortment segments flexibility and short lead times are crucial. The different sourcing requirements across the assortment need to tie back to a clearly defined range framework. It is the basis to optimise the sourcing strategy and operation, and needs to include the entire value chain from merchandise planning to product development and sourcing. Operating customised value chains and differentiated sourcing models requires clear structures, processes, and responsibilities across all parties involved along the value chain. Critical elements are cross-channel integration of plans, starting at the beginning of each calendar cycle across retail, wholesale, and product. This would Kurt Salmon Global Sourcing Reference

6 provide a clear foundation for sourcing strategies and portfolios which are effectively able to serve the needs of each range architecture segment. Conceptual Assortment Planning (CAP) and Line Planning (LP) are the foundations of any such model as transparency on articles, requirements, and KPIs for each range segment are critical to allow for planning of production capacities, materials, and delivery schedules (see exhibit 5). In addition more than 50% of respondents in this year s Global Sourcing Executive Survey are planning to invest in demand and supply planning systems to improve the link between retail and wholesale demand to sourcing quantities. A further key factor that strongly influences the ability to operate differentiated sourcing strategies is the cooperation with suppliers. The essential flexibility and responsiveness is only possible on the base of close collaboration, a high degree of supply consistency and mutual data exchange. For fashion companies in a world with increasing diversity of market and product needs, a thorough review of the operating model is inevitable to maintain and expand the competitive position. Concurrently, sourcing markets require a highly differentiated approach to still be able to bring products into the markets which can serve consumer requirements effectively. Exhibit 5: Integrated planning and operations on demand and supply side Budget & Strategy RETAIL Retail Strategy Financial & Assortment Plan Retail Buying PRODUCT Product Strategy Global Range Plan WHOLESALE Wholesale Strategy Channel & Account Planning Door Planning SOURCING Sourcing Strategy Capacity & Material Planning Demand Planning & Forecasting Supply Planning & PO Mgmt. Stock Allocation Source: Kurt Salmon Global Sourcing Reference About the study The 12th edition of the Global Sourcing Reference analyses current developments in major market trends in textile and apparel sourcing. It includes a detailed analysis of the 46 most important global sourcing countries down to product group level. Besides macroeconomic trends and their impact on sourcing strategies, the study provides insights on current developments in established sourcing countries and evaluates potential new sourcing regions, including potentials and challenges. In order to provide a global perspective, the study assesses the European and the US import market and is supplemented by an executive survey as well as expert interviews. 6 Kurt Salmon Global Sourcing Reference 2015

7

8 Kurt Salmon is the leading global management consulting firm specialising in the retail and consumer products industry. Kurt Salmon is dedicated to building the market leaders of tomorrow. More than just partnering with our clients, we ally with them, integrating ourselves seamlessly into their organisations in order to develop innovative, customised solutions for their 21st century business issues. Succeeding in today s increasingly complex, consumer-driven environment is an enormous challenge. But companies need to look beyond today; they need to position themselves for continued success in the even more uncertain future. That s where Kurt Salmon comes in. We call it delivering success for what s next. The results are transformative. OUR SERVICES: Strategy and Transformation» Consumer Insights and Brand Strategy» Sales and Format Strategy» Omnichannel Strategy» Internationalisation and Market Entry Strategy» Business Transformation» Due Diligence and Post-Acquisition Integration THE AUTHORS: Dorothea Ern-Stockum Managing Director Kurt Salmon Germany Dr. Peter Rinnebach Senior Manager Operations» Merchandising and Planning» Product Development and Sourcing» Sales Management and Store Operations» Supply Chain Management» Logistics and Distribution Management» IT Strategy, Business Alignment and Implementation Support Kurt Salmon Germany GmbH Königsallee Düsseldorf T +49 (0) Hong Kong Shanghai Tokyo Brussels Düsseldorf Geneva London Luxembourg Paris Atlanta Minneapolis New York San Francisco 2015

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