Professor Katherine Richardson En klimatlag på vägen mot ett klimatneutralt Danmark

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1 En klimatlag på vägen mot ett klimatneutralt Danmark

2 Klimakommission Comission on Climate change Policy Goal = fossil fuel independence!

3 The Commission s terms of reference: The Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy is to examine how Denmark can reduce and ultimately eliminate dependency on fossil fuels in the long term. The Climate Commission shall describe how to implement this long-term vision. The Climate Commission s deliberations should take the following criteria into consideration: 1. Reducing the emission of greenhouse gases 2. Increasing energy efficiency 3. Maintaining the high security of energy supply 4. Ensuring macroeconomic cost-effectiveness by using market-based solutions 5. Continuing a high level of economic growth 6. Ensuring positive business development and promoting international competitiveness of business in Denmark 7. Ensuring environmentally sustainable development.

4 KLIMAKOMMISSIONENS SAMMENSÆTNING Katherine Richardson (formand), Professor og Prodekan ved Københavns Universitet Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Professor ved Københavns Universitet Jørgen Elmeskov, Direktør i OECD Cathrine Hagem, Seniorforsker ved Statistisk sentralbyrå, Norge Jørgen Henningsen, Tidligere direktør i EU- Kommissionen John A. Korstgård, Professor og Institutleder ved Aarhus Universitet Niels Buus Kristensen, Institutdirektør for DTU Transport Poul Erik Morthorst, Forskningsspecialist ved Risø DTU Jørgen E. Olesen, Forskningsprofessor ved Aarhus Universitet Mette Wier, Direktør for AKF (Anvendt KommunalForskning) Kommissionen 5 økonomer + 5 ikke økonomer! 21 møder. Faglige analyser. Dokumentation på

5 TWO GOALS FOR THE COMMISSION Independence from oil, coal and natural gas Ambitious climate goal Renewable energy can cover Denmark s energy needs. Derived from EU s target of % reduction of emissions by 2050

6 The Commission s definition on Independence No fossil fuels are utilized on Danish Ground As an annual average the consumption of power is equal to the production of power based on renewable energy technologies

7 THE COMMISSION S PRINCIPLES Economic growth will continue Denmark is not an island Independence should be obtained with the lowest possible societal cost There are no chosen technologies. Market choice rather than command and control Biomass gives opportunities and challenges

8 Two scenarios two worlds Ambitious World (450ppm) High CO2-price Low fossil fuel prices High biomass price Unambitious World (>1000ppm) Low CO2-price High fossil fuel prices Low biomass price

9 Results of the Commission on Climate Change Policy Denmark can become independent of fossil fuels by Even as our energy demand doubles. The technology is available today, but more will become available. Small additional cost as continued dependence on fossil fuels will become an expensive habit.

10 THE EXTRA PRICE TAG IS SMALL 250 GNP in 2050 with and without fossil fuels (index 2008=100) without fossil fuels 2050 with fossil fuels 0

11 CONSUMERS WILL PAY THE SAME PRICE Professor Katherine Richardson Difference in price of electricity with and without wind power (Dkr. per. kwh in 2050) Despite our energy needs doubling by 2050 the total cost for heating, transport and energy will remain the same as today. Primarily due to gains from energy efficiency. Consumer price with wind power Consumer price without wind power

12 CO2-udledninger Fossil fuels Professor Katherine Richardson Challenge: Fossil fuels make up the bulk of carbon emissions. Effort is necessary in this area in order to achieve the goal 70,00 Current emissions 60,00 50,00 40,00 EU Målsætning Drivhusgasser fra fossil energi Øvrige drivhusgasser 30,00 20,00 10,00 80 % reduction 0, % reduktion

13 A few words on the immediate political and community response (2010) And why Denmark? Energy history (oil crisis in the early 70s) A large number of potential industrial winners Combination of energy and climate Strained relationship to Middle East (Mohamed drawings) So how far have we come??

14 Parliamentary energy goal: Independence from fossil fuels in : 40% reduction (Gov) 2050: 100% renewable energy (Gov) Energy agreement including all but 1 parties Climate law (2014): National Goals,5 yr (10 yr. Horison to 2050) Report to Parliament every year Climate Council (recommendations) More or less on target for energy

15 For Denmark: 1990 emission sources: 59% heat and electricity 7% open environment 2% NS oil and gas 16% transport 16% agriculture EU Emission reduction goal of 80-95% in relation to 1990 by Goal of removing fossil fuels from heat and electricity by 2050 MUST be retained! 2. An 80% cannot be achieved without a focus on TRANSPORT and AGRICULTURE!

16 PJ 250 Energiforbrug til transport fordelt på transportform i Danmark '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 Vejtransport Jernbanetransport Søtransport, indenrigs Lufttransport, indenrigs Lufttransport, udenrigs Forsvarets transport 16

17 Biomass is a limited resource and will be used only where there are not substitution opportunities Transport (air and heavy transport, where el is not an option) In industry both as a reserve when el price is high and for processes demanding very high temperature. For el production when the market price is high and the other renewable sources are not sufficient. For district heating only IN COMBINATION with el production to exploit the heat from the el produktionen

18 Brug af flis og træpiller i DK Professor Katherine Richardson

19 What can others learn from the Danish case? 2 o C EU 2050 goal 80-95% reduction of CO 2 emissions vis a vis IF politicians seriously mean these targets, every country needs to consider HOW they can be met!

20 COP 15 vs 21 The COP process Domestic! Serie1 Serie2 Emissions reduction targets ref 1990 EU, USA Projected emissions: China

21 Moving towards environmental management at the global scale

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