Lifetime and annual tax progressivity in Sweden
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1 Lifetime and annual tax progressivity in Sweden Daniel Waldenström Uppsala University February 11, 2011, Ministry of Finance 1
2 Overview of presentation 1. Swedish personal taxation: a brief overview 2. Tax progressivity - how should it be measured? 3. Annual and lifetime tax progressivity 4. What accounts for the results? 5. Concluding remarks 2
3 2. Personal taxes in Sweden Consumption VAT: 71% Labor Municipal: 93% State: 7% Capital Company: 44% Property: 15% Other: 54% Payroll 3
4 Marginal tax rates in Sweden, Earned/capital income (SEK) Earnings MTR Capital income MTR Earnings MTR + Payroll tax 4
5 3. Measuring tax progressivity Income concepts Market income (earnings, capital income, payroll tax) Disposable income (Market income Taxes + Transfers) Taxes-transfers Taxes on earnings, capital, Property, Wealth, Payroll taxes Transfers: Taxed (sickness, unempl.), untaxed (child, house) Tax progressivity Redistributive effect: Inequality-reducing impact of taxation Disproportionality: Deviation from proportional taxation 5
6 Effective tax rate (%) Results: Evolution of Swedish taxtransfer rates, Effective tax rate = (Market inc. Disposable inc.) / Market inc. Financial crisis effect P0-40 P40-60 P90-95 P
7 Disproportionality (Kakwani, K RS ) 100 Annual tax-transfer progressivity Redistributive effect Redistributive effect Disproportionality Disproportionality Financial crisis effect Reymond-Smolensky index, ranking income vs disposable income 7
8 Is Swedish progressivity internationally high? 0.25 Redistributive effect Note: Progressivity scaled by pre-tax Gini. Source: Verbist (2004, Euromod) 8
9 Is Swedish progressivity internationally high? 0.8 Disproportionality Note: Progressivity scaled by pre-tax Gini. Source: Verbist (2004, Euromod) 9
10 5. Lifetime tax progressivity in Sweden We analyze a cohort of individuals aged in 1968 Followed for up to 42 years Sum all incomes and taxes over lifetime and calculate tax rates 10
11 0 5 0 Disproportionality (Kakwani, K RS ) 100 Lifetime vs annual progressivity Redistributive effect Disproportionality Financial crisis effect (very large transfers) Annual progressivity Lifetime progressivity 11
12 Empirical findings 1. Annual progressivity trend follows inverse-u shape 2. Lifetime progressivity lower than in a single year 3. The level of lifetime redistribution low Inequality is reduced by a fourth (10 Gini points) Suggests within-lifetime redistribution What can account for the observed patterns? Income distribution channels Tax system channels 12
13 Income volatility channel: Transitory "poverty" and Taxes as insurance Market income shares Disposable income shares P0-40 P40-60 P60-80 P80-90 P90-95 P95-99 P P P0-40 P40-60 P60-80 P80-90 P90-95 P95-99 P P Lifetime Annual average 13
14 Tax burden volatility channel: The bottom pays higher lifetime taxes Same annual and lifetime tax burdens in the top Lower annual tax burdens in the bottom Top quintile - Annual Top quintile - Lifetime Bottom four quintiles - Annual Bottom four quintiles - Lifetime 14
15 6. Concluding remarks 1. Swedish taxes are high, but not very progressive High progressivity of the 1970's and 80's exceptions Why high taxes and low progressivity? Efficient solution for welfare states Redistribution through welfare services 2. Over the lifetime, progressivity is even lower Indicates redistribution within lifetime 3. Factors driving these results seem to be: Transitory low-incomes Taxes work as insurance against income shocks 15
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