GRASSROOTS GOVERNMENT IN COLORADO How Does Weld County Compare?

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1 Moffat Rio Blanco Garfield Mesa Jackson Routt Grand Pitkin Eagle Summit Lake Park Weld Larimer Boulder Gilpin Clear Creek Jefferson Teller Denver Douglas Weld Adams Arapahoe Elbert Morgan Logan Washington Sedgwick Phillips Yuma Kit Carson Delta Gunnison Chaffee El Paso Lincoln Cheyenne Montrose San Miguel Ouray Hinsdale Saguache Fremont Pueblo Crowley Otero Kiowa Bent Prowers Dolores San Jaun Mineral Rio Grande Huerfano Montezuma La Plata Archuleta Conejos Las Animas Baca GRASSROOTS GOVERNMENT IN COLORADO How Does Weld County Compare? Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Institute March 2014

2 GRASSROOTS GOVERNMENT IN COLORADO How Does Weld County Compare? Colorado Comparative Counties Study Research Report Prepared by Centennial Institute For the Board of Commissioners of Weld County March 2014 December 2013 Editor John Andrews Authors Barry Poulson Bob Brooks Todd Vitale CENTENNIAL INSTITUTE at Colorado Christian University 8787 W. Alameda Avenue Lakewood, Colorado

3 Table of Contents Executive Summary Introduction Research Team Section One : How Weld County Government Sees Itself Baseline for the Comparative Counties Study Board of Commissioners of Weld County Section Two : How Weld County s Economic and Fiscal Condition Measures Up 8 How Good a Place to Live? Prosperity and Opportunity in the Six Counties Barry Poulson How Wise and Frugal? Fiscal Policy and Size of Government Barry Poulson Section Three : How Weld County s Public Administration and Budgeting Measure Up 39 Public Administration: A 360 Performance Review Bob Brooks Budgeting at the Grassroots Barry Poulson Comparison of Service Levels across the Six Counties Bob Brooks Section Four : How Citizens See County Issues 62 What s the Colorado Opinion Climate in Regard to Grassroots Government? Todd Vitale Section Five : Conclusions and Recommendations 71 Comparative Counties Conclusions and Recommendations Centennial Institute Research Team Appendices 77

4 Executive Summary During 2013, rising protests were heard from Coloradans who live outside the Front Range urban corridor, complaining that they feel underrepresented in the legislature and in the overall policy trend of state government. Officials in rural counties convened meetings, ran ballot measures about secession, and floated alternative representation proposals. Amidst this heightened interest in political decentralization, the Board of Commissioners of Weld County engaged Centennial Institute, a public policy think tank at Colorado Christian University, to research comparative data on Weld s governance and public administration, economic and fiscal condition, and citizen attitudes, relative to those in five other Colorado counties similarly situated: Larimer, Boulder, El Paso, Pueblo, and Mesa. The charge to Centennial Institute through this comparative counties study was to give Weld commissioners an assessment of how well they are performing, why performance is good or not, what steps they might take to improve where needed, and whether their model may be suitable to other counties. Economically, Weld County has led the peer group in population growth and job growth, but lagged in productivity growth, and personal income per capita since Weld s greater preference for free-market policies in contrast to neighboring Boulder County has led to a lower cost of living in the former, resulting in a commuter flow toward the latter. Fiscally, Weld County has no sales tax and is debt-free. Its charter imposes extra fiscal safeguards. It has one of the lowest levels of local taxes per capita in Colorado, yet growth in county revenue has far outpaced the peer group since The main reason is oil and gas revenues, whose volatility requires caution by policymakers. In public administration, Weld County emphasizes lean government and targeted service provision. A 360 performance review of county employees found good morale, high standards, and a clarity of purpose at all levels. County government is innovative and technologically current. In budgeting and expenditures, Weld County spending per capita is mid- to low-range in the peer group. Unlike the other five counties, it has zero debt-service expenditures. Its low spending in some categories reflects provision of services through special districts, of which Weld has twice the number of any of its peers. Privatization and contracting-out are strong. In citizen attitudes, our polling of five counties (El Paso omitted) found Weld residents second only to Boulder in believing their county is on the right track and the local economy is improving. A majority in Weld disapprove of the state legislature but approve of their county government. Mesa and Pueblo show higher disapproval of their county government. A majority in all five counties say they get good value for their county tax dollar, although Weld s debt-free policy is unknown to 43% of its voters. On 13 detailed questions about satisfaction with county government, Weld ranks first on 7 and top-tier on 4. The Centennial Institute research team concluded that Weld County s performance of its governmental mission compares very favorably with peer counties on most objective measurements, and that Weld residents subjectively register more satisfaction with life in the county than Coloradans in other locales. The team s recommendations for improvement in some areas of taxation, budgeting, and management do not diminish Weld s excellent ranking overall. As for transferability, the team judged the Weld model as one that local governments everywhere would do well to replicate. March 2014 Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Institute 1

5 Introduction Good Government: The Jeffersonian Ideal and the 2013 Reality By John Andrews The sum of good government, wrote Thomas Jefferson, under whose presidency most of present-day Colorado was added to the United States, is a regime that is wise and frugal, [and] which shall restrain men from injuring one another, shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. Amidst growing controversy over whether Colorado s non-front Range counties are experiencing good government, thus defined, within the state as presently constituted, the Board of Commissioners of Weld County engaged independent researchers to examine the question. Centennial Institute, a nonprofit, nonpartisan public policy center at Colorado Christian University, was retained for that purpose. The research team consisted of former Colorado Senate President John Andrews, Barry Poulson of the University of Colorado, Bob Brooks of the CCU graduate faculty, opinion pollster Todd Vitale, and Greg Schaller of the CCU political science department. Questions posed by the Weld County Commissioners (client) to be addressed by Centennial Institute (researcher) included: * What makes Weld County able to provide efficiency and effectiveness in government without incurring debt? * What makes Weld County a successful model of government? * What steps might Weld County undertake to become an even stronger and more robust government? * How can Weld County continue to provide excellence of service and listen to our citizens? * What changes in business practices do we need to embrace? * How does Weld County compare to other county governments of similar size, economic and demographic background? * Could the Weld County model be adopted by other counties and municipalities? Accordingly, client s specific charge to researcher was as follows: Seek to validate those factors which make Weld County government successful. Review our basic culture and business practices with a view to enhancing our performance. Review our fiscal and business approaches and policies to determine the transferability of this model to other governments. Conduct a survey to determine citizen satisfaction. 2 Centennial Institute Colorado Comparative Counties Study March 2014

6 Researcher carried out this Colorado comparative counties study between September and December, Client provided full and unfettered access to Weld County files and personnel. The work product in this report, including all findings and recommendations, is researcher s sole responsibility. It was developed independently without prescription by client. The scope of work included an economic and fiscal assessment, a public administration and budgeting assessment, and a public opinion assessment. Comparisons were made with Larimer, Boulder, El Paso, Pueblo, and Mesa counties. In taking on the study, we at Centennial Institute were impressed that the Board of Commissioners desired a searching self-portrait of Weld County s governance and economic condition objective and factual, honest and practical. We believe this report meets those criteria. While it may not answer every question in every detail, it makes a good start on the most important questions. So when Coloradans ask if there is a Weld County difference in citizens favor, we believe the evidence here says yes. Are there ways in which Weld County could be doing even better? Yes again. And is there a transferable political and fiscal model from Weld to the benefit of its governmental neighbors? Yes again. With the hope that grassroots government in our state will improve toward the Jeffersonian ideal as a result, Centennial Institute thanks the Weld County Commissioners for the opportunity to conduct this comparative counties study. Respectfully submitted, John Andrews Director, Centennial Institute March 10, 2014 March 2014 Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Institute 3

7 Comparative Counties Research Team EDITOR : John Andrews John Andrews is director of the Centennial Institute at Colorado Christian University. He has served as president of the Colorado Senate, chaired the State Policy Network, headed five state-based think tanks, led an education advisory council for President George H. W. Bush, and worked as a speechwriter for President Richard Nixon. The author or editor of several books, Andrews also taught politics in the honors program at the Colorado School of Mines and was a vice president at Hillsdale College. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS : Barry Poulson Barry Poulson is emeritus professor of economics at the University of Colorado. He has been a visiting professor at universities in Mexico, Spain, Japan, and England. The author of numerous books and articles in the fields of economic development and economic history, he has served on the Colorado Tax Commission and as president of the North American Economics and Finance Association. Poulson is an adjunct scholar at the Heritage Foundation and a consultant on fiscal policy to a number of other think tanks. PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION : Bob Brooks Bob Brooks is an affiliate faculty member in management and leadership at Colorado Christian University and in political science at CU-Denver. With more than 25 years executive experience in city and county government, he has been executive director of the Colorado Department of Local Affairs and an elected commissioner of Arapahoe County, Colorado. Brooks holds degrees from McMurry University and Abilene Christian University, and has completed the Harvard program for senior executives in state and local government. OPINION RESEARCH : Todd Vitale Todd Vitale is the principal in Vitale and Associates (V&A), a national strategic research and communications firm established in 2003 and based in Denver. He has provided polling, communications, and campaign strategy for more than 100 corporate, government, candidate, and non-profit clients in industry areas including natural resources, real estate development, transportation, education, health care, tourism, and politics. Vitale was previously an executive at a grassroots technology firm and a partner at a top Washington DC political research firm. RESEARCH INTERNS Political science majors from Colorado Christian University, participating in Centennial Institute s 1776 Scholars program, carried out many hours of research for Poulson, Brooks, and Vitale. The research interns were Brandon Hershey, Karisa Nickell, Joshua Sherwood, Stanton Spaulding and Mesa Westlake. The intern coordinator was Prof. Gregory Schaller, PUBLISHER : Centennial Institute Centennial Institute is a nonprofit, nonpartisan public policy think tank at Colorado Christian University, established in 2009 under President William L. Armstrong. The institute produces events, publications, and policy analysis aimed at safeguarding America s moral and spiritual heritage, renewing constitutional government, and fostering responsible citizenship in a free society. Its work is aided by 28 policy fellows, along with issue specialists like the Comparative Counties research team. The institute s mentoring program, the 1776 Scholars, provides internships for students, some of whom assisted with the present study. March 2014 Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Institute 4

8 Moffat Rio Blanco Garfield Mesa Jackson Routt Grand Pitkin Eagle Summit Lake Park Weld Larimer Boulder Gilpin Clear Creek Jefferson Teller Denver Douglas Weld Adams Arapahoe Elbert Morgan Logan Washington Sedgwick Phillips Yuma Kit Carson Delta Gunnison Chaffee El Paso Lincoln Cheyenne Montrose San Miguel Ouray Hinsdale Saguache Fremont Pueblo Crowley Otero Kiowa Bent Prowers Dolores San Jaun Mineral Rio Grande Huerfano Montezuma La Plata Archuleta Conejos Las Animas Baca GRASSROOTS GOVERNMENT IN COLORADO SECTION ONE How Does Weld County Compare? How Weld County Government Sees Itself Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Institute December 2013

9 Baseline for the Comparative Counties Study In a memorandum to Centennial Institute on August 2, 2013, the Board of Commissioners of Weld County provided a self-evaluation that can serve as a baseline for this Colorado Comparative Counties study. Below is their discussion verbatim. 1. Statement of Fact Weld County government has been granted powers as defined by Colorado Revised Statutes and by sections and Like other boards of county commissioners, Weld has the power to adopt ordinances for control or licensing matters of purely local concerns. The following factors make us a different type of government. We are driven by best management and sound business practices. Defining appropriate levels and expectations of services is a common practice. Aligning services to meet citizens needs is analyzed and modified as needed. Eliminating services or outsourcing to more efficient means is commonplace. Over the years, Weld has focused its efforts on doing a few necessary matters especially well and divesting itself of other services that are better provided through other means including such things as hospitals, Head Start, minibuses, and ambulances. These efforts have resulted in non-mandated services being provided by more efficient means. We are a government that knows our mission of limited, efficient services. We know our residents and meet their needs. We employ sound business practices by: Limiting services Reviewing needed services Meeting customer needs Knowing what our residents want. The vast majority of our residents only connection with Weld County is roads, elections, license plates, paying taxes, and at times, birth or death certificates. We do all of those. Questioning current business practices and making changes to foster a stronger economic base Staying true to the pay as you go approach to budgeting and financing 2. Outcomes of our sound business practices We have the third highest assessed value in the state of Colorado We have no sales tax We have no debt We maintain approximately 3,000 miles of roads We process more than 15,000 offenders in our jail facilities annually We manage a countywide Area Agency on Aging We set aside more than $7,000,000 annually for new capital construction projects 6 Centennial Institute Colorado Comparative Counties Study March 2014

10 3. Foundation for local control, driven by: Our historic foundation developed in the 1976 charter Our conservative governance based upon fiscal dimension and economic generators Our local business emphasis and a de-centralization of services Our ability to review services and embrace privatization of services. We use private sector partners for: community corrections, court security, HeadStart, minibus transportation, and vehicle maintenance to name a few. And when it makes sense, we sell services for non-mandated programs such as ambulance services to a company having the potential to advance and expand services while possibly cutting costs. Our debt-free and pay cash approach to finance Our common-sense culture Our successful business model Our ability to do what we need to do well, and not unnecessarily grow government. We don t have cemetery, fire, water, sewer, or trash pickup (some counties do all those). And we have limited parks. Our local airport is run by a separate authority, and our library services are provided not by Weld County but rather operated by separate districts. Weld County has more than 300 special taxing districts providing for immediate local needs. Local communities in Weld come together to determine what types of special services, from water to recreational districts they desire and are willing to pay for. Our buildings are constructed for efficiency and function, rather than for appearance. We seek granting opportunities to offset the cost of new construction when possible, and we receive cost benefits based on the economy of scale and our ability to quickly pay for services in cash. Our ability to partner with others to provide services has been a foundation for our success. By sharing services such as firing range, SWAT, drug undercover taskforce, and crime-lab, we are able to provide affordable and efficient coverage for our entire county. We provide the communication infrastructure for the entirety of Weld County. Weld County has for years provided the towers and other communication infrastructure for countywide communications. In the past year, Weld County has spent over five million dollars to improve the system to support simulcast technology for both urban and nonurban needs of the entire County. We brought dispatch in-house because it is an important function to citizens, but in the end, our goal is to reduce overall cost, liability and ensure public safety. We have demonstrated our ability to outsource and move services back into Weld when it makes sense for our constituents to do so. Our elected officials and department heads are leaders in their fields who often provide guidance and leadership at a statewide level. Centennial Institute s research team undertook to reality-check the client s self-evaluation in three major areas, comparing with five Colorado counties similarly situated: Larimer, Boulder, El Paso, Pueblo, and Mesa. The following sections will examine: HOW WELD COUNTY S ECONOMIC AND FISCAL CONDITION MEASURES UP HOW WELD COUNTY S PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND BUDGETING MEASURE UP HOW CITIZENS SEE COUNTY ISSUES March 2014 Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Institute 7

11 Moffat Rio Blanco Garfield Mesa Jackson Routt Grand Pitkin Eagle Summit Lake Park Weld Larimer Boulder Gilpin Clear Creek Jefferson Teller Denver Douglas Weld Adams Arapahoe Elbert Morgan Logan Washington Sedgwick Phillips Yuma Kit Carson Delta Gunnison Chaffee El Paso Lincoln Cheyenne Montrose San Miguel Ouray Hinsdale Saguache Fremont Pueblo Crowley Otero Kiowa Bent Prowers Dolores San Jaun Mineral Rio Grande Huerfano Montezuma La Plata Archuleta Conejos Las Animas Baca GRASSROOTS GOVERNMENT IN SECTION COLORADO TWO How Weld County s How Does Weld County Compare? Economic and Fiscal Condition Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Measures Institute Up December 2013

12 How Good a Place to Live? Prosperity and Opportunity in the Six Counties By Barry Poulson Here we look at several measurements for a comparison of the economic performance of Weld County with a group of Colorado counties with similar economic and demographic characteristics. The group of counties includes, in addition to Weld County, Larimer, Boulder, Mesa, Pueblo, and El Paso Counties. The comparative analysis of Weld County will help provide insight into the county s attractiveness as a place to live, work, and invest. The comparative analysis will help to isolate policy variables from other variables that impact Weld County s economic performance. Over much of the post WWII period, local growth has been highest in suburban counties of metropolitan areas. 1 This suggests that local economic development can be defined in terms of concentric circles around population centers; the metropolitan areas of Colorado would tend to drive economic growth within the region. We would expect suburban counties in the Denver metropolitan area to experience rapid economic and population growth linked to Denver s economic growth. However, recent research reveals a much greater diversity and nuance in local growth than is suggested by this concentric circles model. For example, a study by Hall and Orazem finds a great diversity in county level economic growth in Kansas. 2 Kansas is similar to Colorado in that economic growth is dominated by Johnson County, where Kansas City is located. Johnson County has experienced one of the most rapid rates of economic growth of any county in the U.S. But, outside of Johnson County there is great diversity in county rates of economic growth and demographic change. Some of the most populous counties in Kansas, with metropolitan areas, are underachievers compared to the state average. Metropolitan areas, such as Denver, may dominate economic growth and demographic change in suburban counties in the region. Counties with no metropolitan area and low population density may have disadvantages in achieving high rates of economic growth and development. But we should also expect diversity in the economic and demographic change occurring in Colorado counties that reflects the different policy mix pursued in these counties. A county such as Boulder, with a long history of growth controls and a ubiquitous role for government in the local economy, is likely to have different economic and demographic outcomes compared to Weld County, which has limited the size of government and the role that government plays in the local economy. Let s see what the data show in this regard. 1 For a survey of this literature on local economic growth see Jordan Rappaport, Local Growth Empirics, Center for International Development at Harvard University, Working Paper No. 23, July Arthur P. Hall and Peter Orazem, Long Term Economic Trends in the Regions of Kansas, , Research Report, Kansas Inc., August 2005; see also Arthur P. Hall, Economic Growth in the Regions of Kansas, , Kansas Policy Review, vol. 28, no.1, Spring Centennial Institute Colorado Comparative Counties Study March 2014

13 Economic Growth The Growth in Per Capita Income The most comprehensive measure of the performance of one region relative to another is economic growth. Economic growth is defined as a sustained increase over time in the goods and services produced within a specific geographic region. The most widely used measure of economic growth at the state level is the rate of growth in personal income per capita. The following table compares the rate of growth in personal income per capita in Weld County with that for the state as a whole and for peer counties. The data is compiled for two different time periods and for the period as a whole. The reason for this distinction in time periods is the constitutional amendment adopted in 2002, which changed the boundaries of Weld County by creating the new county of Broomfield. TABLE 1. March 2014 Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Institute 10

14 The evidence reveals a sharp discontinuity in the rate of growth in personal income per capita in Weld County in Over the prior decade the rate of growth in personal income per capita in Weld County is only slightly below that for the state as a whole, and in roughly the middle compared to peer counties. Over the past decade the rate of growth has fallen sharply to less than three fourths that for the state, and well below that for peer counties. During the past decade we have experienced two major recessions, and recovery since the last recession is very sluggish. Therefore it is not surprising that rates of economic growth for the state have fallen roughly in half; what is surprising is that the rate of growth in Weld County has fallen even more than that for the state and peer counties. 3 The rate of growth in personal income per capita reflects the growth in personal income and in population. The following table compares the growth in personal income in Weld County with that for the state and peer counties. TABLE 2. The growth in personal income in Weld County fell by half over the past decade, comparable to that for the state. This retardation in economic growth was even greater in other peer counties such as Boulder and Larimer counties. Two recessions have had a major impact on economic growth in the state. The following table compares the growth in population in Weld County with that for the state and peer counties. Population growth in the state slowed by roughly half in the past decade, from 2.68 percent to 1.46 percent. Weld County has experienced rapid population growth, with rates well above that for the state and peer counties. Over the past decade population growth in Weld County did not decrease as rapidly as that for the state and peer counties. Population growth in Weld County has been about double that for the state, and three and a half times that of Boulder County. 3 The growth rate for the newly created county of Broomfield has also been significantly below that for the state over the past decade, so the sharp decline in the rate of growth in Weld County cannot be explained by this change in county boundaries. 11 Centennial Institute Colorado Comparative Counties Study March 2014

15 TABLE 3. These tables give us our first clue regarding the sharp decrease in the rate of growth in personal income per capita in Weld County over the past decade. While population growth fell, it did not fall as much as the fall in personal income growth. The outcome was a very sharp fall in the rate of growth in per capita personal income, leaving Weld County with one of the lowest growth rates in the state. This evidence suggests a sharp fall in productivity in Weld County, which is confirmed by other direct evidence on productivity change. Productivity Change and Wages The following table is an index of productivity change in Weld County compared to that for the state and peer counties over the past decade. It is constructed by dividing the rate of growth in earnings by the rate of growth in employment. The data reveal a significantly lower rate of productivity change in Weld County compared to the state and peer counties over the past decade. TABLE 4. March 2014 Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Institute 12

16 Average wages per job provide an indirect measure of labor productivity. Businesses cannot on a sustained basis pay workers more than they produce, thus wages should closely track labor productivity. The following table compares wages per job in Weld County with that for the state and peer counties. TABLE 5. Historically, wages per job in Weld County have been significantly below that for the state and for peer counties. Over most of the post-world War II period there is evidence of convergence in wage levels in Colorado. Low wage counties, such as Weld County, experienced more rapid improvements in wages, while high wage counties, such as Boulder County, had less rapid improvement in wages. However, this convergence in wage levels has not continued over the past two decades. Wages in low wage counties have fallen further behind compared to the wages in high wage counties. This divergence in average wage levels suggests divergence in labor productivity as well. Retardation in labor productivity could explain much of the recent retardation in the growth in per capita income experienced in Weld County. Employment Employment data provide further evidence regarding sources of growth in Weld County. Data for wage and salary jobs is available for the entire period. The growth in wage and salary jobs fell sharply in Colorado over this period, reflecting the impact of recent recessions. Weld County job growth declined, but not by as much as that for the state. Wage and salary job growth in Weld County continues to exceed that for the state and peer counties. 13 Centennial Institute Colorado Comparative Counties Study March 2014

17 TABLE 6. More detailed data is available for employment over the past decade. The rate of growth in total employment in Weld County has been almost double that for the state and significantly above that for peer counties. Farm employment in Colorado declined during this period. However, farm employment in Weld County has continued to grow, albeit not as rapidly as total employment. Nonfarm employment growth in Weld County has been almost double that for the state. Among peer counties only Mesa County has experienced growth in nonfarm employment comparable to that in Weld County. TABLE 7. The final breakdown of employment is for private nonfarm employment and government employment. Weld County has experienced the fastest growth in private nonfarm employment of any of the peer counties. Government employment growth has also been rapid in Weld County but not as rapid as that in El Paso County. March 2014 Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Institute 14

18 TABLE 8. Proprietorship Proprietorship is a good proxy measure for what is often referred to as entrepreneurial activity. Data are available for both the number of proprietorships and proprietors income. We distinguish between proprietorship in the nonfarm and farm sectors. TABLE Centennial Institute Colorado Comparative Counties Study March 2014

19 Weld County experienced a high rate of growth in the number of nonfarm proprietors over the past decade, well above that for the state as a whole. Among peer counties only Boulder County experienced a more rapid growth in the number of nonfarm proprietorships than Weld County. However, Weld County nonfarm proprietor income fell over this period, while that for the state increased. Nonfarm proprietor incomes also fell in El Paso, Larimer, and Pueblo counties over this period. Among peer counties only Boulder County experienced nonfarm proprietor income growth significantly above that for the state. Farm proprietors continue to play a major role in the Weld County economy. Over the past decade the number of farm proprietors in Weld County grew more rapidly than that in the state. Among peer counties only El Paso County had more rapid growth in farm proprietors than Weld County. TABLE 10. Comprehensive data are available for farm wage and proprietor income over the period as a whole. There is evidence of a decline in the growth of farm wage and proprietor income. In the 1990s the rate of growth in farm wage and proprietor income in Weld County exceeded that for the state. Over the past decade farm wage and proprietor income in Weld County grew less rapidly than that for the state as a whole. March 2014 Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Institute 16

20 TABLE 11. Standard of Living and Quality of Life Introduction In assessing the attractiveness of Weld County as a place to live, work, and invest, one is struck by the inequality that exists between Weld County compared to peer counties, and especially its neighbor, Boulder County. What is even more notable is the evidence that this inequality has persisted and deepened over the past decade. Understanding this inequality is crucial in an assessment of the attractiveness of Weld County. A Divergence in the Growth of Per Capita Income Per capita income in Weld County is significantly below the average per capita income for all Colorado counties, and also below that for peer counties. Over the past two decades, and especially in the most recent decade, per capita income in Weld County has grown less rapidly than that for all Colorado counties, and also compared to peer counties. This is a reversal of the trend in growth over much of the post-world War II period when per capita income in Weld County grew more rapidly than that in most Colorado counties, including peer counties. This evidence of growing inequality between counties is found in wage data as well as per capita income data. A comparison of the income per capita in Weld County with that in Boulder County over the past decade underscores this growing inequality. Income per capita in Boulder County grew 25 percent over this period, while income per capita in Weld County grew 4 percent. 17 Centennial Institute Colorado Comparative Counties Study March 2014

21 TABLE 1. Income Per Capita (thousand dollars) This divergence in the growth of income per capita is a puzzle in that economic theory suggests that there should be convergence in income per capita between low income counties and high income counties in the long run through the combined impact of trade and factor flows. We will try to answer this puzzle at the end of this section of the report, after exploring the cost of living, amenities, and other measures of the quality of life in these counties. Housing Costs A major factor determining the cost of living in a region is the cost of housing. The following table compares the average price of homes in the major city in each of our sample counties. TABLE 2. Average Price of Homes and Affordability Index (thousand dollars) Source: average price of homes - Coldwell Banker Home Listing Report; average wage per job - Bureau of Economic Analysis March 2014 Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Institute 18

22 With an average price of homes at $173 thousand Greeley has one of the most affordable housing markets in the Front Range. Only Pueblo has a lower average home price among peer counties. The affordability index is constructed by dividing the average price of homes by the average wage per job. Greeley also has one of the most affordable housing markets using this index as well. The outlier in terms of affordable housing is Boulder. The average price of a home in Boulder is now in excess of $1 million, more than six times that in Greeley. In Boulder, the average price of homes is almost 20 times the average wage, compared to 5 times the average wage in Greeley. Boulder County has one of the least affordable housing markets of any non-coastal urban area in the U.S. Ninety percent of urban areas in the U.S. have more affordable housing than Boulder. Cost of Living The Department of Local Affairs constructs an index of the cost of living in Colorado counties with a score of 100 representing the average for the state as a whole. The following table compares the cost of living in Weld County with that in peer counties. TABLE 3. Cost of Living Index Source: State of Colorado Department of Local Affairs Cost of Living Differentials in Colorado: 2007 The counties are ranked as very high, high, midrange, low and very low. With the exception of Boulder County, which has a high cost of living, Weld County and other peer counties are in the midrange. Weld County has a comparative advantage in cost of living compared to high cost of living counties such as Boulder, but is about average compared to other peer counties. The Department of Local Affairs also uses the cost of living index to estimate the real purchasing power of median family income in each county. Median family income in Weld County is below the state average, and well below that in Boulder County. Only Mesa County and Pueblo County have median family incomes significantly lower than Weld County among peer counties. 19 Centennial Institute Colorado Comparative Counties Study March 2014

23 TABLE 4. Real Purchasing Power Source: State of Colorado Department of Local Affairs Cost of Living Differentials in Colorado: 2007 Because Weld County has one of the lowest indices of cost of living, its ranking improves somewhat in measuring the real purchasing power of median family income. However, the cost of living adjusted median family income in Weld County is still below that for the state, and well below that for Boulder County. Poverty A variety of indices have been used to measure the welfare of the lowest income groups in the population. The most widely cited of these indices is the poverty measure compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. The following table compares poverty rates in our sample counties. TABLE 5. Percent of Total Population in Poverty March 2014 Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Institute 20

24 Poverty rates in Weld County and other peer counties, with the exception of El Paso County, are above the state average. The only county with a poverty rate significantly above the state average is Pueblo County. The Department of Local Affairs measured self-sufficiency as a percentage of the poverty level in Colorado in This is an estimate of the annual salary required to purchase a basic market basket of goods and services consumed by a family in one year. TABLE 6. Self Sufficiency Standard The self-sufficiency standard for Weld County and for all peer counties is more than double the poverty rate. Boulder County is again the outlier with a self-sufficiency standard more than three times the poverty rate. Unemployment The final indices to compare for these counties are unemployment rates. With the exception of Pueblo County, unemployment rates in Weld County and other peer counties have historically been below the national average. However, most of these counties have been hard hit by the recent recession resulting in unemployment rates above the national average rate. Only Boulder County and Larimer County were able to keep their unemployment rate below the national average during the recent recession. 21 Centennial Institute Colorado Comparative Counties Study March 2014

25 TABLE 7. Unemployment Rates Inequality by Design In the introduction, we discussed a paradox regarding the inequality of income per capita in Weld County relative to that in peer counties. Over the past two decades, and especially during the recent recession, this inequality has increased. This growing inequality is a paradox in that economic theory suggests that in the long run with free trade and factor flows there should be convergence between low income counties such as Weld County and high income counties such as Boulder County. All of these counties have been hard hit by recessions. Over the past decade, the rate of growth in income in all of these counties has been cut in half, suggesting a comparable impact of recession. More divergence is evident in rates of unemployment. Prior to the recent recession, unemployment in Weld County was comparable to that in Boulder County. Since the recession, unemployment in Weld County has increased significantly above that in Boulder County. Much greater divergence is evident in the rates of population growth and net migration. Over the past decade population growth and net migration declined in all of these counties; however, Weld County experienced population growth rates significantly above that of peer counties; a population growth rate three times that in Boulder County. The inequality that has emerged between Weld County and Boulder County reflects a fundamental difference in public policy. Weld County has pursued policies consistent with a free flow of trade and factors of production in response to market signals. In contrast, the Denver/Boulder metropolitan areas have pursued so called smart growth policies restricting population and economic growth. Boulder County was the first in the U.S. to enact growth management policies. 4 In 1967 Boulder approved a greenbelt, and soon followed with ordinances limiting building permits to limit population growth to 2 percent per year. Boulder drew up urban growth boundaries and imposed strict zoning laws to control development within these boundaries. Other regulations such as height restrictions, design codes, impact fees, and a lengthy planning and building permit process drove up the cost of housing. Randall O Toole estimates that smart growth policies increased the median price of homes in Boulder by more than $100 thousand, and that home buyers spent $500 million more per year because of these regulations. 5 With the average home price in Boulder now in excess of $1 million, today the planning penalty on housing must be significantly greater than when O Toole conducted his study. While subsidies for low income housing benefit a few residents in Boulder, the 4 Randal O Toole, The Planning Penalty: How Smart Growth Makes Housing Unaffordable, Center for the American Dream, Independence Institute, Issue Paper , March 2006; and Stephen Hackman, Creating a Housing Crisis: How Government Makes Housing Unaffordable in the Denver Metropolitan Area, Center for the American Dream, Independence Institute Issue Paper , December Ibid. March 2014 Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Institute 22

26 mandates requiring developers to construct low income housing actually drives up the cost of other housing. In 1989, Denver and Fort Collins followed the lead of Boulder in drawing up urban growth boundaries and limiting development outside these boundaries. In the early 1990s this policy of imposing urban growth boundaries was adopted by the Denver Regional Council of Governments. O Toole estimates that these policies increased home prices in the Denver metropolitan area by $58 thousand. 6 He estimates the total cost of smart growth policies in the metropolitan area at $64 billion, including $41 billion in Denver, and $10 billion in Boulder/Longmont. 7 Smart growth policies encompass a wider range of policies that also contribute to inequality. The Denver metropolitan long range transportation plan allocates substantial resources to public transit, and allocates few resources to improvements in highway transportation. The result has been increased congestion and higher costs to those who commute to work by car. Smart growth policies have limited the ability of businesses to invest and create jobs. Well-established companies, such as Ball Corporation, have expanded outside of Boulder. These polices have limited retail expansion in Boulder, and virtually excluded some retailers such as Walmart. This has reduced job growth and increased the cost of living for consumers. The retail establishments able to pay the high rents in Boulder tend to be high-end retailers catering to wealthy Boulder residents and tourists. After half a century of smart growth planning, it is no surprise these policies are having a major impact on population and economic growth in the Denver metropolitan area. In Boulder, the high cost of housing and cost of living reflect almost half a century of growth controls. With an average price of homes in excess of $1 million, middle income families are disenfranchised from home ownership. Using the traditional 2.5 ratio of home price to salary, only families earning $400 thousand would qualify for home ownership. Boulder has emerged as a wealthy enclave, much like the wealthy ski towns of Vail and Aspen. Like these ski towns, many of the people who work in Boulder live outside the city and commute to work. The inequality that has emerged between Boulder and surrounding communities has become a contentious issue in Boulder. The Boulder Camera recently quoted a critic of Plan Boulder, It is hard to argue that open space hasn t built a moat around the city - It is hard to argue that it hasn t caused 60,000 middle class people commuting here. A lot of the land use rules they promote end up disenfranchising those who can least afford it. 8 It is not surprising that low and middle income families would be attracted to Weld County, which has not implemented smart growth planning. Lower housing prices and cost of living make Weld County affordable to a cross section of people with different levels of income and wealth. A large and growing share of Weld County residents commute to work in the Denver/Boulder metropolitan area. Demographic Trends Introduction Demographic trends in Weld County reflect the discontinuous changes that have occurred in the Colorado economy over the past three decades. In Weld County, and indeed in all peer counties, net in migration has dominated population growth over this period. Rapid net migration and population growth in Front Range counties was propelled by proximity to the rapidly growing Denver metropolitan economy. This is in contrast to the net out migration and slower population growth in counties along the eastern border of Colorado. These rural counties in eastern Colorado have not benefited as much as the Front Range counties from rapid growth of the Denver metropolitan economy. 6 Ibid 7 Ibid 8 Boulder Dailey Camera, October 6, 2013, p Centennial Institute Colorado Comparative Counties Study March 2014

27 Household decisions regarding where to live and work are strongly influenced by wages. Average wages in metropolitan areas exceed average wages in non-metropolitan areas by 20 percent after accounting for education and work experience. Firms in metropolitan areas are also more likely to offer non-wage benefits as well as higher wages. However, surveys indicate that despite the pay and benefits available in metropolitan areas, most families prefer to live in smaller towns. In order to take advantage of the amenities available in smaller towns, many families are willing to trade-off time spent commuting to the higher paying jobs available in the metropolitan areas. The rapid growth of population in Weld County, as well as other Front Range counties with access to the Denver metropolitan area, is evidence of this tradeoff. As we will see later in this report, Weld County residents are also taking advantage of lower housing costs and lower cost of living compared to that in the Denver metropolitan area. Demographic Change in Colorado Population trends in Colorado exhibit several discontinuous changes, and most of these changes are linked to changes in net migration. In the 1980s, Colorado experienced a decrease in population due to net out migration from the state. At that time, the economy was very dependent on the energy sector, and a fall in energy prices was accompanied by retardation in economic growth. TABLE 1. Demographic Change Colorado Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs, State Demography Office - Dashboard March 2014 Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Institute 24

28 There was an acceleration of population growth in the early 1990s, almost all of this acceleration in population growth was due to net in migration. In the 1990s, Colorado experienced one of the most rapid rates of growth in the country. Rapid economic growth attracted a large in migration. The additions to population growth due to net migration were more than double that due to natural increase of the population. In the most recent decade Colorado was hard hit by recessions, and slow recovery from the most recent recession. Net in migration was cut in half relative to that which occurred in the 1990s. This was offset by higher rates of natural increase, so total population continued to grow at a rapid pace. Demographic Change in Weld County The demographic trends experienced in Colorado were magnified in Weld County. In the 1980s Weld County experienced net outmigration and a slow rate of natural increase. This slow rate of population growth reflected declining energy production and a depressed economy. Weld County then experienced a sharp increase in net in migration in the 1990s. The rate of natural increase also rose, but most of the growth in population was due to net in migration. TABLE 2. Demographic Change Weld County Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs, State Demography Office - Dashboard 25 Centennial Institute Colorado Comparative Counties Study March 2014

29 In Weld County, the high rate of in migration continued during the recession in 2001, but slowed somewhat during the most recent recession. The rate of natural increase also slowed during the recent recession. Over the past decade, population growth in Weld County has been almost double that for the state, and has exceeded that for all peer counties. Population growth in this recent period reflects the rapid expansion of the energy sector in Weld County. Comparison of Demographic Change in Weld County and Peer Counties In contrast to Weld County, population growth in peer counties has followed more closely the demographic trends in the state. Slower population growth in the 1980s resulted from a decrease in net migration and in some cases net outmigration from these counties. In the 1990s, acceleration in net in migration brought higher rates of population growth. In the most recent decade, net migration into these counties has slowed somewhat but continues to dominate population growth. Over the past decade, the rate of growth of population in Weld County has been significantly above that in peer counties. The average annual rate of growth in population in Weld County was 2.45 percent compared to an average of 1.46 percent for peer counties. TABLE 3. Demographic Change in Peer Counties March 2014 Colorado Comparative Counties Study Centennial Institute 26

30 The exception to these demographic trends in peer counties is that in Boulder County. In the 1980s, Boulder County experienced only one year of net outmigration, in most years it had a relatively high rate of net in migration and population growth. In the 1990s, Boulder County experienced a high rate of net in migration and population growth, comparable to that in other peer counties. A major discontinuity occurred in the demographic changes in Boulder County over the past decade. In contrast to most other Colorado counties, Boulder County experienced a net outmigration and a low rate of population growth, less than one percent, which is about half the rate of population growth in the state as a whole, and about one fourth that in Weld County. Boulder County has been hard hit by recessions in the past decade, but the retardation in population growth more likely reflects the antigrowth policies Boulder County has pursued for many years. TABLE 4. Demographic Change Boulder County Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs, State Demography Office - Dashboard 27 Centennial Institute Colorado Comparative Counties Study March 2014

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