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1 Grid Tracker: Connect using the web link and new phone / passcode information: Web link: Phone: Passcode: # Workshop August 28, 2013

2 Grid Tracker: A map-based web application to understand, analyze and simulate transmission and power across the Western Interconnection Workshop August 28, 2013

3 Agenda 1. Review of Grid Tracker 2. Demonstrations of Grid Tracker Basic Functions Case Studies Requests for Demonstrations 3. Discussion of Suggested Enhancements 4. Questions and Discussions 3

4 Review of Grid Tracker 4

5 Purpose: Develop an internet-based tool that allows users to understand historical use of the transmission grid and identify opportunities to improve grid efficiency. 5

6 Functions and Uses Search and analyze trends in power flow, Available Transfer Capacity (ATC), and schedules for transmission paths in the Western Interconnection, and display results in a graphical format Incorporate data on hydro flow and renewable energy zones to analyze correlations between resources and grid utilization Identify where there is under-utilized transmission capacity Inform decisions on locating new generation without new lines Explore whether the current open access transmission system leads to an efficient use of the grid 6

7 Database Information WECC Transmission Paths: All available historical Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Path power flow, Operating Transfer Capacity (OTC), schedule and ATC data from Intend to update over time with new data years for WECC Path power flow and OTC data Hydro Power: Historical Columbia River hydro discharge data at The Dalles, Oregon Representative of hydro generation potential in the Northwest Renewable Energy: Power generation data from a variety of proxy renewable energy plants (wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal) Based on WECC s Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee (TEPPC) 2022 Common Case Proxy plants are located within the Western Governors Association and U.S. DOE s Western Renewable Energy Zone Initiative Hubs 7

8 Types of Analysis Basic Time Series Analysis Statistics (Mean, Min, Max, 90 th /95 th /99 th Percentile, St. Dev) Hourly Statistics statistic for each hour of the day Aggregating Time Series (hourly, daily, seasonal, hydro year) Grid Capacity Analysis Calculation of maximum FIRM and NonFIRM ATC Calculation of Unused/Unscheduled Capacity Combining multiple Paths in series or in parallel Statistical Analysis Probability curves Correlation Simulation Simulates proxy plant power generation with adequate transmission capacity Allows the user to adjust the output of the proxy power plant 8

9 Nuances in the Data 9

10 Demonstration of Grid Tracker: 10

11 Case Studies 11

12 Moving Power from Arizona to California Hypothetical scenario: An energy policy intern in the Arizona Governor s office is researching if there is likely to be a reliable amount of transmission capacity, during particular times of day, to send generation from new power plants in Arizona to California. Data used: Path 46 (east to west; primary direction) 2008 flow, OTC and schedule data and Path 49 (east to west; primary direction) 2008 FIRM and NonFIRM ATC data 12

13 Results: Moving power from Arizona to California The clear bottleneck in transmitting power to California is Path 49 (east of the Colorado River), which has significantly less unused transmission capacity than Path 46 (west of the Colorado River). Unused transmission capacity is either the calculated unused/unscheduled capacity or the calculated maximum of FIRM and NonFIRM ATC. 13

14 Results: Moving power from Arizona to California Path 49 (east of Colorado River) unused transmission capacity Path 46 (west of Colorado River) unused transmission capacity 14

15 Results: Moving power from Arizona to California 95% of the time, the level of unused transmission capacity stays fairly constant at approximately megawatts (MW) the entire day. The only exception is the last hour in the day, 11 pm midnight, when the value drops to approximately 120 MW. 15

16 Results: Moving power from Arizona to California Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, minimum hourly Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, average hourly Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, maximum hourly Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, 95 th percentile 16

17 Sizing a Solar Energy Project Hypothetical scenario: A project developer is considering leasing land for a prospective solar energy project in Arizona and would like to know what the total capacity of the plant could be based on the ability to transmit the power west. Data used: Power generation data from 415 MW proxy solar energy plant located in WREZ Hub AZ_WE; Path 46 (east to west; primary direction) 2008 flow, OTC and schedule data and Path 49 (east to west; primary direction) 2008 FIRM and NonFIRM ATC data. 17

18 Results: Sizing a Solar Energy Project 83% of the time in the analysis year, there is adequate transmission capacity for 360 MW from the proxy plant; the remaining 17% of the time, there may or may not be adequate transmission capacity. 18

19 Results: Sizing a Solar Energy Project Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity probability curve AZ_WE Hub proxy solar plant power generation probability curve 83% of the time in the analysis year, there is adequate transmission capacity for 360 MW from the proxy plant. 19

20 Results: Sizing a Solar Energy Project The statistics for the proxy plant generation in comparison to the statistics for the Path 46/49 unused transmission capacity indicate transmission capacity sufficiency. 20

21 Results: Sizing a Solar Energy Project Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, minimum hourly Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, average hourly Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, maximum hourly Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, 95 th percentile AZ_WE Hub proxy solar plant generation, minimum hourly AZ_WE Hub proxy solar plant generation, average hourly AZ_WE Hub proxy solar plant generation, maximum hourly AZ_WE Hub proxy solar plant generation, 95 th percentile 21

22 Results: Sizing a Solar Energy Project The power generation and transmission simulator, which simulates the correlation between power generation and transmission on an hourly basis, shows that at the proxy plant s current size (415 MW), there is adequate transmission capacity for 97% of the plant s generation in the analysis year. If the plant s capacity is increased to 6,500 MW, there is adequate transmission capacity for 15% of the plant s generation in the analysis year. 22

23 Results: Sizing a Solar Energy Project % Plant generation transmitted vs. plant capacity As the plant capacity increases, adequate transmission capacity decreases. If the plant s capacity is increased to 6,500 MW, there is adequate transmission capacity for 15% of the plant s generation in the analysis year. At the proxy plant s current size (415 MW), there is adequate transmission capacity for 97% of the plant s generation in the analysis year. 23

24 Complementary technologies: Mean hourly values of four generation facilities for one entire year clearly shows the inverse and complementary diurnal pattern of wind and solar. Gnd View Solar One: Generation Solar PV (Mean, Hour) IPCo Biomass: Generation Biomass (Mean, Hour) IPCo Geothermal: Generation Geothermal (Mean, Hour) IPCo Wind: Generation Wind (Mean, Hour) 24

25 Complementary technologies: Mean hourly statistics of four generation facilities for one entire year shows that the solar power in midday offsets the drop in wind power. The narrow range in variation, relative to wind or solar power alone, indicates that the two plants together tends to make the power generation more uniform throughout the day. 25

26 Multiple proxy plant and transmission simulation: If you combine the wind and solar proxy plants in Idaho, and simulate them through Path 17 in Idaho (primary direction is East to West), there is adequate transmission capacity for the power generated about 98% of the time. 26

27 Requests for Demonstrations 27

28 Possible Enhancements 28

29 Potential New Features and Capabilities Allow user to present single-valued calculation results in tables or bar graphs, rather than a time chart Allow users to make time series plots of single functions Add a year-on-year statistical feature to calculate time series statistics over several years to provide reasonable ranges of the data Add the capability to rank paths according to a calculated probability value. Access the geographic coordinates and historical data by tools other than Grid Tracker 29

30 Potential Data Enhancements Add distribution factors to plant outputs to illustrate that power from a plant splits and flows over multiple transmission paths Include Region-to-Region Interconnections in the list of transmission Paths (e.g. NW to CA, or AZ to CA) Add hourly temperatures from selected regional load centers as a new database for correlation studies Add historic generation, load, and pricing data to identify market trends when there is unused capacity Add additional renewable energy proxy plants, particularly in California 30

31 Additional Suggestions from Participants 31

32 Questions and Discussion 32

33 Final Workshop Thursday, September 5 th from 9-11 am PST/10 am-12 pm MST/11 am -1 pm CST Please RSVP and provide input for webinar/workshop content to: You can connect using the following web link and conference call information: Web link: Phone: Passcode: # 33

34 and Contact Information Grid Tracker website: Please send questions/comments to: Tom Carr, WIEB (303) x3 Suzanne Leta Liou, Atkins (503)

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