The digital revolution: how wireless connectivity and big data are reshaping the industrial landscape

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1 The digital revolution: how wireless connectivity and big data are reshaping the industrial landscape Pictet Asset Management 2015 For professional investors only

2 Overview To the casual observer, it could be 1999 all over again. A flood of tech and Internet IPOs has stirred memories of the dot-com bubble of the late 90s, when companies with web-focused business models could reach sky-high valuations without having yet made a profit. But on deeper reflection, this feels fundamentally different. A speeding up of technological development, the proliferation of mobile devices and the creation of large amounts of data are responsible for a digital revolution that is reverberating far beyond the confines of the technology, media and telecommunication industries. Not only are investment opportunities more abundant today than they were 15 years ago, but valuations show that investors are taking a much more realistic view of companies prospects than at the height of the dot.com boom. This digital revolution is creating new industries and ways of doing business changes so profound that companies that fail to adapt may struggle to stay relevant. For the managers of Pictet-Digital Communication, two types of companies are emerging as the main beneficiaries of this transition: providers of innovative solutions to help traditional organisations become fit for the digital age, and born digital pioneers whose new business models are disrupting established industries. Our portfolio managers believe that these firms have the potential to deliver industry-beating growth and to become a magnet for investment. China is at the forefront of this digital revolution. There, the internet and e-commerce are a source of strong growth, helping the economy transform from an export-led to a consumer-driven model. 2 Pictet Asset Management

3 Accelerating convergence Mobile technology far outpaces the growth of any other computing cycle IT spending is predicted to grow 3.8 per cent in 2015, according to market Devices/Users research firm IDC, but MM Log scale) Mainframe Minicomputer investments associated with the most pervasive streams of technology cloud, mobile, social media and big data could see growth of as much as 13.8 per cent. 100 This is because the industry is entering a phase of development that is characterised 1 by the 10MM+ broadening Units adoption of 1MM+ these Unitsfour technologies and their gradual convergence into Shortening cycles FIG. 1 COMPUTING CYCLES OVER TIME Devices/Users MN in Log scale) 1,000,000 10, MN+ Mainframe Shortening cycles 10 MN one powerful platform. Cheaper and faster processors as predicated by Moore s Law increased network Desktop Mobile capacity, and more efficient data internet internet storage have helped this transition gather steam (Fig.1). In our view, this burst of technological innovation promises to be as transformative as Tens of billions the mainframe era that ran from of unitsthe Billions of units 2014 > 7bn 1960s to the 1980s, and the personal 1BN+ units/users 2018 > 50bn computer phase, which encompassed 2023 > 1 tr. the development of the Internet and the rise of the smartphone. PC 100MM+ units INCREASED INTEGRATION 2000 Minicomputer PC Desktop internet 100 MN+ INCREASED INTEGRATION 1BN Mobile internet BILLIONS OF UNITS 2020 Internet of things 2030 Internet of things 10s OF BILLIONS OF UNITS 2014 > 7bn 2020 > 50bn Source: Morgan Stanley Mobile Internet Report The digital revolution: how wireless connectivity and big data are reshaping the industrial landscape 3

4 A number of new core technologies form part of this megatrend. Perhaps the most powerful is the Internet of Things (IoT), the rising number of smart devices equipped with sensors and connected to the Internet (see Fig. 2). Watches, surveillance cameras, coffee machines, cars and medical equipment are just some of the devices that will become part of the digital ecosystem. US technology firm Cisco Systems estimates that the number of devices connected to the Internet will rise from some 10 billion today to 50 billion by According to IDC, this should create a market worth USD3 trillion in revenues by 2018, one that extends across several technology sectors, including telecom equipment (wireless connectivity), IT hardware (wearable devices), semiconductors, data analytics and cloud storage (Fig 3.) Yet beyond the exponential growth of connected machines, the IoT's commercial potential also stems from its capacity to reconfigure the relationship between firms and their customers. Internet, media, e-commerce, application software and data analysis companies in particular can now access higher-quality advertising and clientbehaviour analytics, information which could shed light on new opportunities for profitable growth. The adoption of the Internet of Things is broadening... FIG. 2 THE INTERNET OF THINGS LANDSCAPE Connected cars Connected homes Connected cities Industrial internet Transportation Wearables Oil & gas Healthcare Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research...and will fuel the growth of a market worth USD3 trillion by 2020 FIG. 3 GLOBAL INTERNET OF THINGS REVENUE Worldwide internet of things revenue ($B) Growth, % CAGR = 12.5% 1,333 1,533 1,751 1,966 2,211 2,470 2,748 3, Source: IDC 4 Pictet Asset Management

5 Businesses gear up for digital revolution Adapting to the digital age is becoming a matter of survival for businesses. IDC estimates that by 2018, one third of the market leaders in most industries are set to face competition from new entrants, those better equipped to capitalise on the potential of digital technologies (Fig. 4). To guard against this threat, many established businesses from a broad range of sectors are ramping up their software budgets. Several are also turning to cloud-based software providers, a new group of specialist firms that can harness large swathes of data and help big, established businesses become more digitally-minded. One example of this new breed of 'digital enablers' is US company Medidata, which is developing cloud-based applications that help pharmaceutical companies collect, analyse and harness data during all the stages of clinical development, right up to the point at which new treatments are submitted for regulatory approval. But the digitisation of the health care sector does not stop there. Patients medical records and test lab results are being digitised while technology platforms connecting patients and healthcare providers will soon become commonplace, with records accessible on the go through applications such as Apple s Health app. Beyond Apple, Internet giants such as Google and Facebook are investing heavily in the health sector, aware of the commercial potential that lies in being able to map users health profiles. Predictalytics, the business of predicting and preventing diseases, is also an area of investment. New entrants are set to challenge leaders in every industry FIG. 4 THE NEW DIGITAL ECONOMY Sharing / Participative economy B2B / B2C / C2C platforms Cloud FINANCE BUILDINGS Mobile internet: more functionalities with lot SERVICE SECTORS SERVICE SECTORS IT & NETWORKS PUBLIC SAFETY SECURITY CONSUMER & HOME MEDIA RETAIL HEALTHCARE & LIFE SCIENCE INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORTATION Source: Pictet & Deep Field, The IoT - CLSA, December 2014 The digital revolution: how wireless connectivity and big data are reshaping the industrial landscape 5

6 Elsewhere, in the transport industry, companies such as Fleetmatics have developed fleet management systems built around GPS tracking technology. Businesses can pinpoint the location of their vehicles in real time, but also track driver journeys, check fuel usage or get alerts from tyre monitoring sensors. And in retail, traditional brick and mortar retailers are racing to build an online presence so they can compete with web-only stores and offer customers the seamless shopping experience they desire, from online to offline. Even luxury brands, which have long resisted e-commerce, now offer online shopping windows. Harnessing big data is a complex business, but the potential rewards in doing so can be considerable. Companies that can collect, store and gain insights from the mountains of digital data they create can become more efficient, both operationally and in terms of product development. By augmenting their customer profiles with historic consumption patterns, social media behaviour data or attitudes to risk, businesses can gain a significant competitive advantage. This is why our investment managers expect cloud, big data and analytics to become a focus for investment for companies operating across a wide range of industries (Fig. 5). Disruptive technologies are fuelling innovation and rapid growth FIG. 5 NEW DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES Mobile tech Social media Cloud Big data Crowd sourcing Source: Jefferies US Internet Team, March Pictet Asset Management

7 Born digital Another area of interest for Pictet AM investment managers is the disruptive technology being developed by a new breed of digital pioneers. These are the innovative start-ups with the potential to create new industries and upset established business models, aided by the spread of smartphone use. This is the model that leaders of the Sharing Economy have followed, such as room-booking service Airbnb or the music-streaming company Spotify. In the automobile industry, ridesharing service Uber is quickly gaining popularity. And it is bringing about sweeping change: a recent study by Columbia University has shown that vehicle ownership among US commuters that car-share has been cut in half since Uber launched. The insurance, finance and media industries which sell informationbased services that can be delivered digitally are also vulnerable to digital disruption. In insurance, for instance, customers may be willing to pay more for advice and coverage that is tailored to their individual needs, such as pay-as-you-drive insurance. An intensifying battle between startups and traditional businesses is taking place in banking and payment systems. The IPO of San Francisco-based Lending Club, a peer-to-peer lending service, in December 2014 could prove to be the beginning of the end for the traditional intermediated lending model. Social media networks have also spotted an opportunity and many now offer a mash-up of chat and personal finance services. Facebook, for instance, has built a hidden payment feature in its Messenger application that would enable its 500 million active users to attach cash payments to their messages. Snapchat, the application that lets messages disappear after a few seconds, announced in November 2014 that it was launching Snapcash to let users transfer money to each other, while instant messaging app Viber has been bought by Rakuten, Japan's largest online shopping mall, which runs a portfolio of internet businesses including financial services. In China, major Internet and e-commerce companies like Tencent and Alibaba are beefing up their mobile payment systems to draw users to their platforms. They have recently extended their services to Internet finance Tencent now offers investment products such as money-market funds via its mobile messenger app Wechat. These services could one day rival or surpass traditional payment means such as cheques or bank transfer for consumers to pay businesses. Their rollout may be faster in emerging markets, where the lack of traditional banking and payment structures in some countries means there is an opportunity to leapfrog the rich world and go straight to mobile banking. Growth in the range of devices that enable individuals and organisations to access data anywhere anytime will be a major force behind the development of these new 'born digital' businesses. A major plus for these new firms is that smartphone penetration rates are still very low in emerging markets only 36 per cent of the population has a smartphone in Brazil and 46 per cent in Russia, against 59 per cent in the US and 78 per cent in Japan. The convergence of disruptive technologies is giving rise to new business models Mobile tech Mobile tech Mobile tech FIG. 6 EXAMPLES OF DISRUPTIVE BUSINESS MODELS Technologies Company Enabled Why customers love them? Big Big data data Social media Social media Big data Social media Mobile Tech Crowd sourcing Cloud Cloud Crowd sourcing Cloud Crowd sourcing Borrowers get better rates Investors get better returns Passengers get better, cheaper rides Drivers make more money Mobile Big tech data Mobile Tech Social Crowd media sourcing Social media Cloud Better way to communicate, share text, images, audio, location,... Mobile tech Big data Social media Crowd sourcing Cloud Cloud Source: Jefferies US Internet Team, March 2015 Big Big data data Crowd Crowd sourcing sourcing The digital revolution: how wireless connectivity and big data are reshaping the industrial landscape 7

8 Chinese tigers China is at the forefront of the global push into digital. It is home to the world s largest online market with 680 million Internet users compared with just 222 million in the US. Chinese online shoppers now represent a third of the world s total. Thanks to the penetration of smartphones, which are revolutionising the way consumers purchase goods and services, the country is experiencing the fastest growth in online shopping in the world. Digital expansion is showing no signs of slowing: China is expected to be a major source of IT investment in 2015, representing 43 per cent of the industry s global growth and accounting for nearly 500 million of smartphones sales, three times the number sold in the US, according to IDC. Riding this wave are some of China s largest technology groups, led by the three collectively known as BAT: Baidu, which has managed to push Google out of the Chinese search market; Alibaba, which has established a tight grip on e-commerce; and Tencent, which enjoys a similar hold in social media. These internet giants have built a solid presence in their domestic market, which is allowing them to take risks and innovate so they can expand abroad. Chinese home-grown smartphone makers are also making their mark. Newcomer Xiaomi grabbed the top spot from Samsung in 2014 by selling high-quality, low-cost devices online. The start-up, which began selling affordable phones in 2010, was valued at USD46 billion in December 2014 following the latest round of private funding, making it one of the world s most valuable private technology companies. Xiaomi is beginning to export this low-cost model to emerging countries such as India. The influence of China s internet growth will expand well beyond retailers. The spread of the web is expected to have a substantial impact on the corporate landscape in China by boosting productivity and by helping companies streamline their businesses. This should speed up China's transition to a consumption-based economic model. Digital momentum is building as the penetration of internet accelerates around the world FIG. 7 GLOBAL INTERNET PENETRATION RATES Internet penetration rates: >80% 50-80% 30-50% <30% Source: Intenet World Stats June Pictet Asset Management

9 Valuations, growth at a reasonable price Investors have begun to recognise the power of the digital revolution. Thirty-eight tech firms entered the billion dollar club in 2014, according to research group CB insights, which tracks venture capital. This has raised some concerns among market participants. Fifteen years after the dot.com bust, euphoria around the September 2014 IPO of Alibaba in New York which valued the company at USD200 billion, and record valuations for startups like Uber and Snapchat have revived talk of a tech bubble. But although there may be pockets of excess, it seems valuations are much more realistic this time around. Mature digital businesses such as Priceline, Tencent, or ebay, with proven asset-light business models, are experiencing strong sales and revenue growth and continue to deliver operating margins in excess of 20 per cent. From this vantage point, valuations compare favourably to those that prevailed in 2000 when Yahoo was trading on a multiple of 100 times sales and ebay, 75 times. Today these ratios stand at a more reasonable 7 and 3 times. Profitability will continue to improve with efficiency gains. Thanks to better network infrastructure and exponential growth in computing power and storage capacity, companies now operate in a much bigger market than during the last tech boom, with 3 billion users online versus 400 million in Moreover, because their growth is underpinned by the fast adoption of mobile, cloud, social and big data, digital businesses offer potentially superior fundamentals to those of old tech firms, as Fig. 8 shows. Conditions for companies operating in the legacy PC/enterprise service sectors are particularly tough. Because of intensifying competition, hardware and telecom equipment manufacturers such as IBM, Hewlett- Packard and Cisco Systems are losing market share, and suffering declines in both prices and profit margins. Some large IT software companies like Microsoft are attempting to reboot their business models with new ventures into cloud services, but their efforts are being hampered as the new ventures cannibalise their traditional licence software business. Digital technology firms are fundamentally more attractive than "old tech" FIG. 8 COMPARISON OF DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY FIRMS' FUNDAMENTALS AGAINST TRADITIONAL TECH Sales growth in % 2015e 2016e Operating Margin in % Net debt as a % of market cap Forward PE FY1 EPS Long-Term Growth Resulting PEG Priceline % 0.9 Tencent % 0.8 Ebay % 1.3 Google % 1.0 IBM % 1.3 Intel % 1.4 Oracle % 1.6 Cisco % 1.7 Source: Bloomberg, data as of 02/03/2015 VS. The digital revolution: how wireless connectivity and big data are reshaping the industrial landscape 9

10 Conclusion - Digital transition brings attractive investment opportunities Fifteen years after the bursting of the dot.com bubble, a wave of IT innovation is fundamentally changing the way companies operate. Cloud computing, mobile, social media and data analytics have come together to open up new opportunities for business growth and improve productivity, triggering a new technology investment cycle. The digital revolution has also given rise to a new breed of disruptive, technologically-advanced companies, firms that are shaking the foundations of established businesses and industries, much like Amazon and Google did in the last decade. Sophisticated artificial intelligence, wearable technology, cryptocurrencies and the expansion of the Internet of Things bear testimony to the pace of change. Yet, in contrast to the tech frenzy of the late 90s, company valuations are at reasonable levels, supported by solid business models and dependable earnings. In this period of unprecedented technological innovation and transformation, attractive investment opportunities abound. New emerging technologies will form the next major wave of innovation FIG. 9 THE NEXT WAVE OF EMERGING TECH AI The Internet of things Crypto currencies Wearables / E-health Virtual Reality / Gaming Robotics / Industry Health Source: Jefferies US Internet Team, March Pictet Asset Management

11 INVESTING IN THE DIGITAL TRANSITION WITH PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT Pictet-Digital Communication invests in companies that will profit from the digital transition, a structural trend that is evolving independently from economic cycles. Because it draws on mobile, social, cloud and big data, the portfolio provides investors with different exposures to traditional technology investment funds. Sylvie Sejournet, Senior Investment Manager, Pictet-Digital Communication Investment managers look for companies with strong prospects and attractive valuations. Valuations account for 50 per cent in the fundamental scoring framework adopted by the fund. The fund provides exposure to several rapidly growing segments: e-commerce, online advertising, interactive devices, network operators, data analytics and cloud-based software. Investors can tap into the superior growth potential of Asian technology companies through investments in the region that form 20 per cent of the portfolio. Contacts For further information, please visit our websites: This material is for distribution to professional investors only. However, it is not intended for distribution to any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Information used in the preparation of this document is based upon sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of those sources. Any opinion, estimate or forecast may be changed at any time without prior warning. Investors should read the prospectus or offering memorandum before investing in any Pictet-managed funds. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor and may be subject to change in the future. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. This document has been issued in Switzerland by Pictet Asset Management SA and in the rest of the world by Pictet Asset Management Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, and may not be reproduced or distributed, either in part or in full, without their prior authorisation. For UK investors, the Pictet and Pictet Total Return umbrellas are domiciled in Luxembourg and are recognised collective investment schemes under section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act Swiss Pictet funds are only registered for distribution in Switzerland under the Swiss Fund Act, they are categorised in the United Kingdom as unregulated collective investment schemes. The Pictet Group manages hedge funds, funds of hedge funds and funds of private equity funds which are not registered for public distribution within the European Union and are categorised in the United Kingdom as unregulated collective investment schemes. For Australian investors, Pictet Asset Management Limited (ARBN ) is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence, under the Corporations Act For US investors, Shares sold in the United States or to US Persons will only be sold in private placements to accredited investors pursuant to exemptions from SEC registration under the Section 4(2) and Regulation D private placement exemptions under the 1933 Act and qualified clients as defined under the 1940 Act. The Shares of the Pictet funds have not been registered under the 1933 Act and may not, except in transactions which do not violate United States securities laws, be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States or to any US Person. The Management Fund Companies of the Pictet Group will not be registered under the 1940 Act. Copyright 2015 Pictet - Issued in March The digital revolution: how wireless connectivity and big data are reshaping the industrial landscape 11

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